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Anatomy of Lifetime Earnings Inequality: Heterogeneity in Job Ladder Risk vs. Human Capital

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Abstract

We study the determinants of lifetime earnings (LE) inequality in the U.S. by focusing on latent heterogeneity in job ladder dynamics and on-the-job learning as sources of wage growth differentials. Using administrative data, we find (i) more frequent job switches among lower LE workers, mainly driven by nonemployment spells, (ii) little heterogeneity in average annual earnings growth of job stayers in the bottom two-thirds of the LE distribution, and (iii) an earnings growth for job switchers that rises strongly with LE. We estimate a structural model featuring a rich set of worker types and firm heterogeneity. We find vast differences in ex-ante job ladder risk—job loss, job finding, and contact rates—across workers. These differences account for 75% of the lifetime wage growth differential among the bottom half of the LE distribution. Above the median, almost all lifetime wage growth differences are a result of Pareto-distributed learning ability.

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  • Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2022. "Anatomy of Lifetime Earnings Inequality: Heterogeneity in Job Ladder Risk vs. Human Capital," Working Papers 2022-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 04 Mar 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:93614
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2022.002
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    2. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2021. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal About Lifecycle Earnings Dynamics?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2303-2339, September.
    3. Serdar Ozkan ⓡ & Joachim Hubmer ⓡ & Sergio Salgado ⓡ & Elin Halvorsen ⓡ & Serdar Ozkan, 2023. "Why Are the Wealthiest So Wealthy? A Longitudinal Empirical Investigation," CESifo Working Paper Series 10324, CESifo.
    4. Andrew Caplin & Victoria Gregory & Eungik Lee & Soren Leth-Petersen & Johan Sæverud, 2023. "Subjective Earnings Risk," Working Papers 2023-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 04 Jan 2024.
    5. Naijia Guo & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2021. "Do elite colleges matter? The impact on entrepreneurship decisions and career dynamics," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(4), pages 1347-1397, November.
    6. Nezih Guner & Alessandro Ruggieri, 2021. "Misallocation and inequality," Discussion Papers 2021/01, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    7. Victoria Gregory & Guido Menzio & David G. Wiczer, 2021. "The Alpha Beta Gamma of the Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 28663, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Campanale, Claudio & Fernández-Bastidas, Rocío, 2023. "Top earners: A labor productivity process," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    9. Serdar Birinci & Fatih Karahan & Yusuf Mercan & Kurt See, 2022. "Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2022-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Sep 2023.
    10. Elin Halvorsen & Hans A Holter & Serdar Ozkan & Kjetil Storesletten, 2024. "Dissecting Idiosyncratic Earnings Risk," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 617-668.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    job ladder; human capital; search frictions; life-cycle earnings risk; lifetime income inequality; Pareto tails; heterogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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