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The Job Ladder and its Implications for Earnings Risk

Author

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  • Joachim Hubmer

    (Yale University)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the ability of a job ladder framework to explain recent evidence on life-cycle earnings dynamics. Using administrative data, Guvenen, Karahan, Ozkan, and Song (2015) document several new facts about the distribution of earnings growth, most notably large negative skewness and high excess kurtosis, rejecting the frequently used log-normal framework. I show that these new facts can be well explained by a standard structural representation of a frictional labor market, a life-cycle version of the job ladder model, in combination with a simple human capital process. Furthermore, I identify endogenous search effort, risk aversion and wealth accumulation, and skill loss in unemployment as key model features that interact with the labor market friction to jointly reconcile the evidence. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Joachim Hubmer, 2018. "The Job Ladder and its Implications for Earnings Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 172-194, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:16-276
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2018.01.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Shigeru Fujita & Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2024. "Measuring Employer-to-Employer Reallocation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 1-51, July.
    2. Tristan Potter & Dan Bernhardt, 2022. "Wage offers and on‐the‐job search," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(1), pages 74-105, February.
    3. Jovanovic, Boyan & Prat, Julien, 2021. "Reputation and earnings dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    4. Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2019. "Anatomy of Lifetime Earnings Inequality: Heterogeneity in Job Ladder Risk vs. Human Capital," Staff Reports 908, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. McKay, Alisdair, 2017. "Time-varying idiosyncratic risk and aggregate consumption dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-14.
    6. Ellora Derenoncourt & Chi Hyun Kim & Moritz Kuhn & Moritz Schularick, 2024. "Unemployment risk, portfolio choice, and the racial wealth gap," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_508, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    7. Hoffmann, Eran B. & Malacrino, Davide, 2019. "Employment time and the cyclicality of earnings growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 160-171.
    8. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2021. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal About Lifecycle Earnings Dynamics?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2303-2339, September.
    9. Felipe Alves, 2022. "Job Ladder and Business Cycles," Staff Working Papers 22-14, Bank of Canada.
    10. Audra Bowlus & Émilien Gouin‐Bonenfant & Huju Liu & Lance Lochner & Youngmin Park, 2022. "Four decades of Canadian earnings inequality and dynamics across workers and firms," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1447-1491, November.
    11. Andrew Caplin & Victoria Gregory & Eungik Lee & Soren Leth-Petersen & Johan Sæverud, 2023. "Subjective Earnings Risk," Working Papers 2023-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 04 Jan 2024.
    12. Kaas, Leo & Lalé, Etienne & Siassi, Nawid, 2023. "Job Ladder and Wealth Dynamics in General Equilibrium," CEPR Discussion Papers 18706, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    14. Ellora Derenoncourt & Chi Hyun Kim & Moritz Kuhn & Moritz Schularick, 2023. "Unemployment Risk, Portfolio Choice, and the Racial Wealth Gap," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 265, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    15. Ellora Derenoncourt & Chi Hyun Kim & Moritz Kuhn & Moritz Schularick, 2023. "Unemployment Risk, Portfolio Choice, and the Racial Wealth Gap," Working Papers 332, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    16. Elin Halvorsen & Hans A Holter & Serdar Ozkan & Kjetil Storesletten, 2024. "Dissecting Idiosyncratic Earnings Risk," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 617-668.
    17. Moritz Kuhn & Gašper Ploj, 2020. "Job Stability, Earnings Dynamics, and Life-Cycle Savings," CESifo Working Paper Series 8710, CESifo.
    18. Ana Sofia Pessoa, 2021. "Earnings Dynamics in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 9117, CESifo.
    19. Joseph Altonji & Disa Hynsjo & Ivan Vidangos, 2023. "Individual Earnings and Family Income: Dynamics and Distribution," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 225-250, July.
    20. Niklas Engbom, 2018. "Firm and Worker Dynamics in an Aging Labor Market," 2018 Meeting Papers 1009, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Boyan Jovanovic & Julien Prat, 2018. "Reputation Cycles and Earnings Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 25252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Carlos Carrillo-Tudela & Ludo Visschers & David Wiczer, 2022. "Cyclical Earnings, Career and Employment Transitions," CESifo Working Paper Series 9990, CESifo.
    23. Eran B. Hoffmann & Mr. Davide Malacrino, 2018. "Employment Time and the Cyclicality of Earnings Growth," IMF Working Papers 2018/115, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Earnings dynamics; Life-cycle earnings risk; Non-Gaussian shocks; On-the-job search;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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