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Gathering insights on the forest from the trees: a new metric for financial conditions

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  • Scott Brave
  • R. Andrew Butters

Abstract

By incorporating the Harvey accumulator into the large approximate dynamic factor framework of Doz et al. (2006), we are able to construct a coincident index of financial conditions from a large unbalanced panel of mixed frequency financial indicators. We relate our financial conditions index, or FCI, to the concept of a \"financial crisis\" using Markov-switching techniques. After demonstrating the ability of the index to capture \"crisis\" periods in U.S. financial history, we present several policy-geared threshold rules for the FCI using Receiver Operator Characteristics (ROC) curve analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2010. "Gathering insights on the forest from the trees: a new metric for financial conditions," Working Paper Series WP-2010-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2010-07
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    Cited by:

    1. Scott Brave & Hesna Genay, 2011. "Federal Reserve policies and financial market conditions during the crisis," Proceedings 1129, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. Miss Nombulelo Gumata & Mr Nir Klein & Mr Eliphas Ndou, 2012. "A Financial Conditions Index for South Africa," Working Papers 5119, South African Reserve Bank.
    3. Luke Hartigan & Michelle Wright, 2021. "Financial Conditions and Downside Risk to Economic Activity in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Catherine Doz & Anna Petronevich, 2017. "On the consistency of the two-step estimates of the MS-DFM: a Monte Carlo study," PSE Working Papers halshs-01592863, HAL.
    5. Indranarain Ramlall, 2015. "Mauritius Financial System Stress Index: Estimating the Costs of the Subprime Crisis," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 235-271, September.
    6. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez‐Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2015. "Extracting Nonlinear Signals from Several Economic Indicators," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 1073-1089, November.
    7. Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski, 2014. "A financial market stress indicator for Austria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 481-504, August.
    8. Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco & Holló, Dániel, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
    9. Chadwick, Meltem Gulenay & Ozturk, Huseyin, 2019. "Measuring financial systemic stress for Turkey: A search for the best composite indicator," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 151-172.
    10. Dimitrios P. Louzis & Angelos T. Vouldis, 2013. "A financial systemic stress index for Greece," Working Papers 155, Bank of Greece.
    11. Hummaira Jabeen, 2023. "US-Financial Conditions and Macro-economy of Emerging Markets," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(1), pages 51-63, March.
    12. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T., 2012. "A methodology for constructing a financial systemic stress index: An application to Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1228-1241.
    13. Sirio Aramonte & Samuel Rosen & John W. Schindler, 2017. "Assessing and Combining Financial Conditions Indexes," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 1-52, February.
    14. Levanon, Gad & Manini, Jean-Claude & Ozyildirim, Ataman & Schaitkin, Brian & Tanchua, Jennelyn, 2015. "Using financial indicators to predict turning points in the business cycle: The case of the leading economic index for the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 426-445.
    15. José Pedro Braga & Inês Pereira & Teresa Balcão Reis, 2014. "Composite Indicator of Financial Stress for Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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    Keywords

    Financial crises; Financial markets;

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