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Beliefs, Aggregate Risk, and the U.S. Housing Boom

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Abstract

Endogenously optimistic beliefs about future house prices can account for the path and standard deviation of house prices in the U.S. housing boom of the 2000s. In a general equilibrium model with incomplete markets and aggregate risk, agents form beliefs about future house prices in response to shocks to fundamentals. In an income expansion with looser credit conditions, agents are more likely to underpredict house prices and revise up their beliefs. Matching the standard deviation and steady rise in house prices results in homeownership becoming less affordable later in the boom as well as consumption dynamics that match the data.

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  • Margaret M. Jacobson, 2022. "Beliefs, Aggregate Risk, and the U.S. Housing Boom," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-061, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2022-61
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2022.061
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    Cited by:

    1. Greg Howard & Jack Liebersohn, 2023. "Regional Divergence and House Prices," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 312-350, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing boom; Aggregate risk; Heterogeneous agents; Incomplete information;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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