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A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks

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  • Zheng Liu
  • Pengfei Wang
  • Tao Zha

Abstract

Aggregate housing demand shocks are an important source of house price fluctuations in the standard macroeconomic models, and through the collateral channel, they drive macroeconomic fluctuations. These reduced-form shocks, however, fail to generate a highly volatile price-to-rent ratio that comoves with the house price observed in the data (the “price-rent puzzle”). We build a tractable heterogeneous-agent model that provides a microeconomic foundation for housing demand shocks. The model predicts that a credit supply shock can generate large comovements between the house price and the price-to-rent ratio. We provide empirical evidence from cross-country and cross-MSA data to support this theoretical prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Tao Zha, 2019. "A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks," NBER Working Papers 25667, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25667
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2019-10-23 19:41:14

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    3. Davis, J. Scott & Huang, Kevin X.D. & Sapci, Ayse, 2022. "Land price dynamics and macroeconomic fluctuations with imperfect substitution in real estate markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Ma, Xutao & Zhang, Zhen, 2022. "Expectations, credit conditions, and housing boom-bust: Evidence from SVAR with sign and zero restrictions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Margaret Jacobson, 2019. "Beliefs, Aggregate Risk, and the U.S. Housing Boom," 2019 Meeting Papers 1549, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Dong, Feng & Xu, Zhiwei, 2022. "Bubbly bailout," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
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    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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