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What drove the 2003–2006 house price boom and subsequent collapse? Disentangling competing explanations

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  • Griffin, John M.
  • Kruger, Samuel
  • Maturana, Gonzalo

Abstract

Ten years after the financial crisis, the central question of what explains the rise and fall in house prices remains unresolved. We provide a unified framework to examine four excess credit supply variables and three speculation variables that have been proposed in the literature. Credit supply variables, particularly subprime share and worse originator share, strongly relate to future zip-code-level house price changes in the boom and bust, whereas none of the speculation variables consistently relate to house prices within MSAs. Pre-trends, supply elasticity, and depressed areas suggest these relations are not driven by lenders anticipating house price growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Griffin, John M. & Kruger, Samuel & Maturana, Gonzalo, 2021. "What drove the 2003–2006 house price boom and subsequent collapse? Disentangling competing explanations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1007-1035.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:141:y:2021:i:3:p:1007-1035
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.06.014
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    2. Rohan Ganduri & Steven Chong Xiao & Serena Wenjing Xiao, 2023. "Tracing the source of liquidity for distressed housing markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 408-440, March.
    3. Margaret Jacobson, 2019. "Beliefs, Aggregate Risk, and the U.S. Housing Boom," 2019 Meeting Papers 1549, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Cullen F. Goenner, 2024. "Robust lessons learned from bank failures during the Great Financial Crisis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 449-498, February.
    5. Lingxiao Li & Abdullah Yavas & Bing Zhu, 2023. "Externalities of residential property flipping," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(1), pages 233-271, January.
    6. Kenneth P. Brevoort, 2024. "Reexamining the 'Role of the Community Reinvestment Act in Mortgage Supply and the U.S. Housing Boom'," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-009, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Chi-Young Choi & Alexander Chudik & Aaron Smallwood, 2024. "Time-varying Persistence of House Price Growth: The Role of Expectations and Credit Supply," Globalization Institute Working Papers 426, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Bo Li, 2024. "Household Leverage Cycle Around the Great Recession," Papers 2407.01539, arXiv.org.
    9. Chung Yim Yiu, 2023. "A Natural Quasi-Experiment of the Monetary Policy Shocks on the Housing Markets of New Zealand during COVID-19," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-16, January.
    10. Bo Li, 2024. "Testing Business Cycle Theories: Evidence from the Great Recession," Papers 2403.04104, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crisis; House price growth; Credit supply; Mortgage misreporting; Housing demand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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