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A Macroeconomic Model of Price Swings in the Housing Market

Author

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  • Carlos Garriga
  • Rodolfo Manuelli
  • Adrian Peralta-Alva

Abstract

This paper shows that a macro model with segmented financial markets can generate sizable movements in housing prices in response to changes in credit conditions. We establish theoretically that reductions in mortgage rates always have a positive effect on prices, whereas the relaxation of loan-to-value constraints has ambiguous effects. A quantitative version of the model under perfect foresight accounts for about one-half of the observed price increase in the United States in the 2000s. When we include shocks to expectations about housing finance conditions, the model's ability to match house values improves significantly. The framework reconciles the observed disconnect between house prices and rents since, in general equilibrium, financial shocks can decrease rents and increase prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Garriga & Rodolfo Manuelli & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2019. "A Macroeconomic Model of Price Swings in the Housing Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2036-2072, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:109:y:2019:i:6:p:2036-72
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20140193
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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