IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v133y2021ics0378426621002478.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Aggregate Distress Risk and Equity Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Guo, Hui
  • Jiang, Xiaowen

Abstract

The aggregate default probability is significantly priced in equities because of its close relation with uncertainty. Ceteris paribus, the aggregate default probability positively predicts stock market returns, and loadings on its changes correlate negatively with the cross-section of expected stock returns. These findings are consistent with multifactor models in which aggregate uncertainty is a determinant of the conditional equity premium and innovations in aggregate uncertainty are a systematic risk factor. By contrast, credit spreads have negligible explanatory power for expected stock returns. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, credit spreads are poor proxies for aggregate credit risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Hui & Jiang, Xiaowen, 2021. "Aggregate Distress Risk and Equity Returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:133:y:2021:i:c:s0378426621002478
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106296
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426621002478
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106296?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jack Favilukis & Xiaoji Lin & Xiaofei Zhao, 2020. "The Elephant in the Room: The Impact of Labor Obligations on Credit Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(6), pages 1673-1712, June.
    2. Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2013. "Firm Characteristics and Stock Returns: The Role of Investment-Specific Shocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(11), pages 2718-2759.
    3. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    4. Gabriel Perez‐Quiros & Allan Timmermann, 2000. "Firm Size and Cyclical Variations in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1229-1262, June.
    5. John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, February.
    6. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. "The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
    7. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
    8. Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
    9. Guo, Hui, 2004. "Stock prices, firm size, and changes in the federal funds rate target," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 487-507, September.
    10. Lorenzo Garlappi & Hong Yan, 2011. "Financial Distress and the Cross‐section of Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(3), pages 789-822, June.
    11. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    12. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2007. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 651-707.
    13. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 309-340.
    14. Michael S. O'Doherty, 2012. "On the Conditional Risk and Performance of Financially Distressed Stocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(8), pages 1502-1520, August.
    15. Kapadia, Nishad, 2011. "Tracking down distress risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 167-182, October.
    16. Favilukis, Jack & Lin, Xiaoji, 2016. "Does wage rigidity make firms riskier? Evidence from long-horizon return predictability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 80-95.
    17. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    18. Campbell, John Y. & Giglio, Stefano & Polk, Christopher & Turley, Robert, 2018. "An intertemporal CAPM with stochastic volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 207-233.
    19. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    20. Ravi Bansal & Dana Kiku & Ivan Shaliastovich & Amir Yaron, 2014. "Volatility, the Macroeconomy, and Asset Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2471-2511, December.
    21. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie, 2014. "The VIX, the variance premium and stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 181-192.
    22. Jens Hilscher & Mungo Wilson, 2017. "Credit Ratings and Credit Risk: Is One Measure Enough?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(10), pages 3414-3437, October.
    23. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    24. Conrad, Jennifer & Kapadia, Nishad & Xing, Yuhang, 2014. "Death and jackpot: Why do individual investors hold overpriced stocks?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 455-475.
    25. Wei Huang & Qianqiu Liu & S. Ghon Rhee & Liang Zhang, 2010. "Return Reversals, Idiosyncratic Risk, and Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 147-168, January.
    26. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2015. "Editor's Choice Digesting Anomalies: An Investment Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 650-705.
    27. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    28. George, Thomas J. & Hwang, Chuan-Yang, 2010. "A resolution of the distress risk and leverage puzzles in the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 56-79, April.
    29. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
    30. Avramov, Doron & Chordia, Tarun & Jostova, Gergana & Philipov, Alexander, 2009. "Credit ratings and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 469-499, August.
    31. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    32. Thorbecke, Willem, 1997. "On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 635-654, June.
    33. Nils Friewald & Christian Wagner & Josef Zechner, 2014. "The Cross-Section of Credit Risk Premia and Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2419-2469, December.
    34. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
    35. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    36. Merton, Robert C., 1980. "On estimating the expected return on the market : An exploratory investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 323-361, December.
    37. Lin, Xiaoji & Zhang, Lu, 2013. "The investment manifesto," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 351-366.
    38. Pierre Collin-Dufresn & Robert S. Goldstein & J. Spencer Martin, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
    39. John M. Griffin & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Book‐to‐Market Equity, Distress Risk, and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2317-2336, October.
    40. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
    41. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2008. "Average Idiosyncratic Volatility in G7 Countries," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1259-1296, May.
    42. Sudheer Chava & Amiyatosh Purnanandam, 2010. "Is Default Risk Negatively Related to Stock Returns?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2523-2559, June.
    43. Choi, Jaewon & Richardson, Matthew, 2016. "The volatility of a firm's assets and the leverage effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 254-277.
    44. Hahn, Jaehoon & Lee, Hangyong, 2006. "Yield Spreads as Alternative Risk Factors for Size and Book-to-Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 245-269, June.
    45. Jack Favilukis & Xiaoji Lin, 2016. "Wage Rigidity: A Quantitative Solution to Several Asset Pricing Puzzles," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 148-192.
    46. Ralitsa Petkova, 2006. "Do the Fama–French Factors Proxy for Innovations in Predictive Variables?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 581-612, April.
    47. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    48. Bekaert, Geert & Wu, Guojun, 2000. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42.
    49. Jing-Zhi Huang & Ming Huang, 2012. "How Much of the Corporate-Treasury Yield Spread Is Due to Credit Risk?," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(2), pages 153-202.
    50. Itamar Drechsler & Amir Yaron, 2011. "What's Vol Got to Do with It," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 1-45.
    51. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    52. Hilscher, Jens Dietrich & Campbell, John Y. & Szilagyi, Jan, 2011. "Predicting Financial Distress and the Performance of Distressed Stocks," Scholarly Articles 9887619, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    53. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    54. Lorenzo Garlappi & Tao Shu & Hong Yan, 2008. "Default Risk, Shareholder Advantage, and Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2743-2778, November.
    55. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom, 2017. "Asset Return Dynamics under Habits and Bad Environment-Good Environment Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(3), pages 713-760.
    56. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509 is not listed on IDEAS
    57. Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2011. "Investment Shocks and Asset Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(4), pages 639-685.
    58. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:2225-2241 is not listed on IDEAS
    59. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:831-868 is not listed on IDEAS
    60. Chan, K C & Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. "Structural and Return Characteristics of Small and Large Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1467-1484, September.
    61. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:3:p:1131-1147 is not listed on IDEAS
    62. Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ferreira Filipe, Sara & Grammatikos, Theoharry & Michala, Dimitra, 2016. "Pricing default risk: The good, the bad, and the anomaly," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 190-213.
    2. Cheng, Hang & Guo, Hui & Shi, Yongdong, 2024. "Multifactor conditional equity premium model: Evidence from China's stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    3. Deniz Anginer & Çelim Yıldızhan, 2018. "Is There a Distress Risk Anomaly? Pricing of Systematic Default Risk in the Cross-section of Equity Returns [The risk-adjusted cost of financial distress]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(2), pages 633-660.
    4. Kevin Aretz & Chris Florackis & Alexandros Kostakis, 2018. "Do Stock Returns Really Decrease with Default Risk? New International Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(8), pages 3821-3842, August.
    5. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert & Wang, Zijun & Yang, Jian, 2009. "Is the Value Premium a Proxy for Time-Varying Investment Opportunities? Some Time-Series Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 133-154, February.
    6. Su, Xuan-Qi, 2016. "Does systematic distress risk drive the investment growth anomaly?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 240-248.
    7. Guo, Hui & Qiu, Buhui, 2014. "Options-implied variance and future stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 93-113.
    8. João Pedro Pereira & António Rua, 2018. "Asset Pricing with a Bank Risk Factor," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(5), pages 993-1032, August.
    9. Stefan Nagel, 2013. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
    10. Maio, Paulo & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2012. "Multifactor models and their consistency with the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 586-613.
    11. Michael S. O'Doherty, 2012. "On the Conditional Risk and Performance of Financially Distressed Stocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(8), pages 1502-1520, August.
    12. Assaf Eisdorfer & Efdal Ulas Misirli, 2020. "Distressed Stocks in Distressed Times," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(6), pages 2452-2473, June.
    13. Jean Helwege & Jing-Zhi Huang & Yuan Wang, 2017. "Debt Covenants and Cross-Sectional Equity Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(6), pages 1835-1854, June.
    14. Cho, Sungjun, 2014. "What drives stochastic risk aversion?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 44-63.
    15. Bai, Jennie & Bali, Turan G. & Wen, Quan, 2021. "Is there a risk-return tradeoff in the corporate bond market? Time-series and cross-sectional evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1017-1037.
    16. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, January.
    17. Ian Martin, 2017. "What is the Expected Return on the Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 367-433.
    18. Calvet, Laurent E. & Betermier, Sebastien & Jo, Evan, 2019. "A Supply and Demand Approach to Equity Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 13974, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    20. Doron Avramov & Tarun Chordia & Gergana Jostova & Alexander Philipov, 2022. "The Distress Anomaly is Deeper than You Think: Evidence from Stocks and Bonds [The prediction of corporate bankruptcy: a discriminant analysis]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 355-405.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:133:y:2021:i:c:s0378426621002478. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.