IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/osfxxx/2e4f3.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Long term influences of age-education transition on the Brazilian labour market

Author

Listed:
  • Amaral, Ernesto F. L.

    (Texas A&M University)

  • Rios-Neto, Eduardo L G
  • Potter, Joseph E

Abstract

The objective of this study is to estimate the long term mean earnings of the male Brazilian population, taking into account the aging process of the population and the increase in educational attainment. Using census data, household sample surveys, as well as population and education projections, estimates indicate that an aging population and an increase in education will have a two percent impact on the annual growth of an average income in Brazil by 2050. The challenge for the future is to improve the proportion of the Brazilian population with completed college degrees.

Suggested Citation

  • Amaral, Ernesto F. L. & Rios-Neto, Eduardo L G & Potter, Joseph E, 2012. "Long term influences of age-education transition on the Brazilian labour market," OSF Preprints 2e4f3, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:2e4f3
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/2e4f3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/5ac04855266c2a000ec4292b/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/2e4f3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berry, Christopher R. & Glaeser, Edward L., 2005. "Divergence of Human Capital Levels across Cities," Working Paper Series rwp05-057, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    2. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason & Timothy Miller, 2003. "Saving, Wealth and the Transition from Transfers to Individual Responsibility: The Cases of Taiwan and the United States," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 339-358, September.
    3. Lawrence F. Katz & Kevin M. Murphy, 1992. "Changes in Relative Wages, 1963–1987: Supply and Demand Factors," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(1), pages 35-78.
    4. Moretti, Enrico, 2004. "Estimating the social return to higher education: evidence from longitudinal and repeated cross-sectional data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1-2), pages 175-212.
    5. Richard Easterlin, 1978. "What will 1984 be like? Socioeconomic implications of recent twists in age structure," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 15(4), pages 397-432, November.
    6. Katz, Lawrence F. & Autor, David H., 1999. "Changes in the wage structure and earnings inequality," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 26, pages 1463-1555, Elsevier.
    7. Giorgio Brunello, 2010. "The effects of cohort size on European earnings," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 273-290, January.
    8. David A. Wise, 2009. "Developments in the Economics of Aging," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number wise09-1.
    9. Andrew Mason & Ronald Lee & An-Chi Tung & Mun-Sim Lai & Tim Miller, 2009. "Population Aging and Intergenerational Transfers: Introducing Age into National Accounts," NBER Chapters, in: Developments in the Economics of Aging, pages 89-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc74-1.
    11. David Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn Finlay, 2009. "Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 79-101, June.
    12. Robert Shimer, 2001. "The Impact of Young Workers on the Aggregate Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(3), pages 969-1007.
    13. Welch, Finis, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 65-97, October.
    14. Turra, Cassio M. & Queiroz, Bernardo L., 2009. "Antes de que sea demasiado tarde: transición demográfica, mano de obra disponible y problemas de la seguridad social en el Brasil," Notas de Población, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    15. Richard B. Freeman, 1979. "The Effect of Demographic Factors on Age-Earnings Profiles," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 14(3), pages 289-318.
    16. Skans, Oskar Nordstrom, 2005. "Age effects in Swedish local labor markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 419-426, March.
    17. Ernesto F. L. Amaral & Daniel S. Hamermesh & Joseph E. Potter & Eduardo L.G. Rios-Neto, 2007. "Demographic Change and the Structure of Wages: A Demand-Theoretic Analysis for Brazil," NBER Working Papers 13533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Mason, Andrew & Kinugasa, Tomoko, 2008. "East Asian economic development: Two demographic dividends," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-6), pages 389-399.
    19. Jacob Mincer, 1958. "Investment in Human Capital and Personal Income Distribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(4), pages 281-281.
    20. Christopher R. Berry & Edward L. Glaeser, 2005. "The divergence of human capital levels across cities," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(3), pages 407-444, August.
    21. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 1998. "Computing Inequality: Have Computers Changed the Labor Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1169-1213.
    22. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling and Earnings," NBER Chapters, in: Schooling, Experience, and Earnings, pages 41-63, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Christopher R. Berry & Edward L. Glaeser, 2005. "The Divergence of Human Capital Levels across Cities," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2091, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    24. Biagi, Federico & Lucifora, Claudio, 2008. "Demographic and education effects on unemployment in Europe," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 1076-1101, October.
    25. Christopher R. Berry & Edward L. Glaeser, 2005. "The Divergence of Human Capital Levels Across Cities," NBER Working Papers 11617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Berger, Mark C, 1985. "The Effect of Cohort Size on Earnings Growth: A Reexamination of the Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(3), pages 561-573, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ernesto Amaral & Bernardo Queiroz & Júlia Calazans, 2015. "Demographic changes, educational improvements, and earnings in Brazil and Mexico," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Ernesto F. L. Amaral & Bernardo L. Queiroz & Julia A. Calazans, 2015. "Effects of Demographic and Educational Changes on the Labor Markets of Brazil and Mexico," Working Papers WR-1089, RAND Corporation.
    3. Amaral, Ernesto F. L. & Faustino, Samantha Haussmann Rodarte & Gonçalves, Guilherme Quaresma & Queiroz, Bernardo L, 2019. "Economic sector, demographic composition, educational attainment, and earnings in Brazil," OSF Preprints vz4sa, Center for Open Science.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ernesto Amaral & Bernardo Queiroz & Júlia Calazans, 2015. "Demographic changes, educational improvements, and earnings in Brazil and Mexico," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Ernesto F. L. Amaral & Bernardo L. Queiroz & Julia A. Calazans, 2015. "Effects of Demographic and Educational Changes on the Labor Markets of Brazil and Mexico," Working Papers WR-1089, RAND Corporation.
    3. Ernesto F.L. Amaral & Joseph E. Potter & Daniel Hamermesh & Eduardo L.G. Rios Neto, 2013. "Age, education, and earnings in the course of Brazilian development: Does composition matter?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(20), pages 581-612.
    4. Amaral, Ernesto F. L. & Rios-Neto, Eduardo L G & Potter, Joseph E, 2016. "The influence of internal migration on male earnings in Brazil, 1970–2000," OSF Preprints y8v2d, Center for Open Science.
    5. Ernesto F. L. Amaral & Eduardo Luiz Goncalves Rios-Neto & Joseph E. Potter, 2015. "The Influence of Internal Migration on Male Earnings in Brazil, 1970-2000," Working Papers WR-1090, RAND Corporation.
    6. Jaison Abel & Todd Gabe, 2011. "Human Capital and Economic Activity in Urban America," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(8), pages 1079-1090.
    7. Ernesto Lima Amaral, 2012. "The Decomposition of Economic Outcomes as a Result of Changes in Brazil’s Male Age–Education Structure," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 31(6), pages 883-905, December.
    8. Amaral, Ernesto F. L., 2012. "The decomposition of economic outcomes as a result of changes in Brazil’s male age-education structure," OSF Preprints e6v5c, Center for Open Science.
    9. Andrés Rodríguez‐Pose & Vassilis Tselios, 2009. "Education And Income Inequality In The Regions Of The European Union," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 411-437, August.
    10. Enrico Moretti, 2013. "Real Wage Inequality," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 65-103, January.
    11. John V. Winters, 2013. "Human capital externalities and employment differences across metropolitan areas of the USA," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(5), pages 799-822, September.
    12. Amaral, Ernesto F. L. & Faustino, Samantha Haussmann Rodarte & Gonçalves, Guilherme Quaresma & Queiroz, Bernardo L, 2019. "Economic sector, demographic composition, educational attainment, and earnings in Brazil," OSF Preprints vz4sa, Center for Open Science.
    13. Baris Kaymak, 2009. "Ability Bias and the Rising Education Premium in the United States: A Cohort-Based Analysis," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(3), pages 224-267.
    14. Garloff, Alfred & Roth, Duncan, 2016. "Regional age structure and young workers' wages," IAB-Discussion Paper 201606, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    15. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Kohn, Karsten, 2006. "Skill Wage Premia, Employment, and Cohort Effects: Are Workers in Germany All of the Same Type?," IZA Discussion Papers 2185, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Dan Black & Natalia Kolesnikova & Lowell Taylor, 2009. "Earnings Functions When Wages and Prices Vary by Location," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 21-47, January.
    17. Gallego, Francisco A., 2012. "Skill Premium in Chile: Studying Skill Upgrading in the South," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 594-609.
    18. Ademola Obafemi Young, 2021. "Cohort Size and Unemployment Rate: New Insights from Nigeria," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 13(1), pages 122-151, January.
    19. David H. Autor, 2019. "Work of the Past, Work of the Future," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 1-32, May.
    20. Lindley, Joanne & Machin, Stephen, 2014. "Spatial changes in labour market inequality," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 121-138.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:2e4f3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://osf.io/preprints/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.