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Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2026: Mittelfristig nur verhaltene Ausweitung der Wirtschaftsleistung

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  • Kirsch, Florian
  • Barabas, György
  • Jessen, Robin
  • Schmidt, Torsten

Abstract

Nachdem die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung kurzfristig weiterhin von den Auswirkungen der Corona-Pandemie bestimmt wird, treten für den mittelfristigen Ausblick strukturelle Faktoren wieder in den Vordergrund, die das Produktionspotenzial der deutschen Volkswirtschaft und ihr weiteres Wachstum bestimmen. Im Zuge der wirtschaftlichen Erholung von der Krise dürften in der kurzen Frist zwar noch vergleichsweise hohe Wachstumsraten zu verzeichnen sein. Der Aufschwung dürfte allerdings etwa durch die Auswirkungen der stark gestiegenen Preise insbesondere für Energie gedämpft werden. Mittelfristig wird der BIP-Anstieg dann voraussichtlich spürbar verhaltener ausfallen. Nicht zuletzt, weil der demografische Wandel sich im Projektionszeitraum negativ auf das potenzielle Arbeitsvolumen auswirkt. Gleichzeitig stellt die Umstellung auf eine emissionsärmere Produktion und der damit verbundene Bedarf für Investitionen und neue Technologien die Volkswirtschaft vor eine große Herausforderung.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirsch, Florian & Barabas, György & Jessen, Robin & Schmidt, Torsten, 2021. "Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2026: Mittelfristig nur verhaltene Ausweitung der Wirtschaftsleistung," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 72(4), pages 39-50.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwikon:249669
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    References listed on IDEAS

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