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The Expansion of College Education in the United States: Is There Evidence of Declining Cohort Quality?

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  • Chinhui Juhn
  • Dae Il Kim
  • Francis Vella

Abstract

This article documents the expansion of college education in the United States and examines to what extent the increase in the number of college graduates may have lead to a decline in the average quality of college graduates. Using the 1940--90 Census, we compare across birth year cohorts with varying levels of college completion. We find some weak evidence that college graduate men from highly educated cohorts earn a relatively smaller wage premium even controlling for the relative supply effect. However, these cohort quality effects account for only a small fraction of the recent fluctuation in the college wage premium.(JEL I20, J24, J31) Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Chinhui Juhn & Dae Il Kim & Francis Vella, 2005. "The Expansion of College Education in the United States: Is There Evidence of Declining Cohort Quality?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(2), pages 303-315, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:43:y:2005:i:2:p:303-315
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ei/cbi020
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Todd Schoellman & Lutz Hendricks, 2009. "Student Abilities During the Expansion of U.S. Education, 1950-2000," 2009 Meeting Papers 162, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Meier, Volker & Schiopu, Ioana, 2020. "Enrollment expansion and quality differentiation across higher education systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 43-53.
    3. Tali Regev, 2007. "Imperfect information, self-selection and the market for higher education," Working Paper Series 2007-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Carneiro, Pedro & Lee, Sokbae, 2009. "Estimating distributions of potential outcomes using local instrumental variables with an application to changes in college enrollment and wage inequality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 191-208, April.
    5. Gregory Kurtzon, 2012. "Ability Composition Effects on the Education Premium," Working Papers 456, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    6. Philip A. Trostel, 2007. "The fiscal impacts of college attainment," New England Public Policy Center Working Paper 07-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    7. Pedro Carneiro & Sokbae Lee, 2011. "Trends in Quality-Adjusted Skill Premia in the United States, 1960-2000," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2309-2349, October.
    8. Yang Wang, 2015. "Education Expansion and Decline in Tertiary Premium in Brazil: 1995-2013," Working Papers 1525, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    9. Hendricks, Lutz & Schoellman, Todd, 2014. "Student abilities during the expansion of US education," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 19-36.
    10. Nicole M. Fortin, 2006. "Higher-Education Policies and the College Wage Premium: Cross-State Evidence from the 1990s," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 959-987, September.
    11. Mendolicchio Concetta & Paolini Dimitri & Pietra Tito, 2012. "Asymmetric Information And Overeducation," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, October.
    12. Hilal Atasoy & Rajiv D. Banker & Paul A. Pavlou, 2021. "Information Technology Skills and Labor Market Outcomes for Workers," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 32(2), pages 437-461, June.
    13. Pedro Carneiro & Sokbae (Simon) Lee, 2005. "Ability, sorting and wage inequality," CeMMAP working papers CWP16/05, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    14. Shao-Hsun Keng & Chun-Hung Lin & Peter F. Orazem, 2017. "Expanding College Access in Taiwan, 1978-2014: Effects on Graduate Quality and Income Inequality," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(1), pages 1-34.
    15. Shuaizhang Feng & Xiaoyu Xia, 2018. "Endogenous skill-biased technology adoption: Evidence from China's college enrollment expansion program," Working Papers 2018-099, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    16. Feng, Shuaizhang & Xia, Xiaoyu, 2022. "Heterogeneous firm responses to increases in high-skilled workers: Evidence from China's college enrollment expansion," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    17. Robert B. Archibald & David H. Feldman & Peter McHenry, 2015. "A Quality-Preserving Increase in Four-Year College Attendance," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(3), pages 265-297.
    18. Adriana Camacho & Julián Messina & Juan Pablo Uribe, 2017. "The Expansion of Higher Education in Colombia: Bad Students or Bad Programs?," Documentos CEDE 15352, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    19. Zimmermann, Markus & Fitzenberger, Bernd & Osikominu, Aderonke, 2016. "Cohort Changes in Educational Pathways and Returns to Education," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145927, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Hu, Chenxu & Bollinger, Christopher, 2021. "Effects of cohort size on college premium: Evidence from China's higher education expansion," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    21. Vanesa Jorda & Jose M. Alonso, 2020. "What works to mitigate and reduce relative (and absolute) inequality?: A systematic review," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-152, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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