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On the Intertemporal Behavior of the Short-Term Rate of Interest

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  • Sanders, Anthony B.
  • Unal, Haluk

Abstract

This paper examines the intertemporal behavior of the short-term rate of interest in a mean-reverting model (Vasicek's elastic random walk model). Using the Goldfeld-Quandt switching regressions technique, we show that the mean-reverting model switched regimes three times over the sample period (March 1959 to December 1985) and that two of these switches coincide with the 1979 and 1982 changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy on interest rates. Parameter estimates prove to be unstable over the sample period. There is evidence of slow mean reversion over the entire sample period; yet significant mean-reversion emerges only in the 1979n1982 regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanders, Anthony B. & Unal, Haluk, 1988. "On the Intertemporal Behavior of the Short-Term Rate of Interest," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 417-423, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:23:y:1988:i:04:p:417-423_01
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    Cited by:

    1. Dennis, Steven A. & Jeffrey, Andrew, 2002. "Structural changes in Australian bank risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-17, February.
    2. Francois, Pascal & Hubner, Georges, 2004. "Credit derivatives with multiple debt issues," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 997-1021, May.
    3. Hong, Yongmiao & Lin, Hai & Wang, Shouyang, 2010. "Modeling the dynamics of Chinese spot interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1047-1061, May.
    4. Vetzal, Kenneth R., 1997. "Stochastic volatility, movements in short term interest rates, and bond option values," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 169-196, February.
    5. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Marius Ascheberg & Robert A. Jarrow & Holger Kraft & Yildiray Yildirim, 2014. "Government Policies, Residential Mortgage Defaults and the Boom and Bust Cycle of Housing Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 627-661, September.
    7. Xiaohua Chen & Zaigui Yang, 2019. "Stochastically Assessing the Financial Sustainability of Individual Accounts in the Urban Enterprise Employees’ Pension Plan in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-20, June.
    8. Clinebell, John M. & Kahl, Douglas R. & Stevens, Jerry L., 2000. "Integration of LIBOR and Treasury bill yields over different monetary regimes," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 17-30.
    9. Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 23-42, March.
    10. T. J. Brailsford & K. Maheswaran, 1998. "The Dynamics of the Australian Short†Term Interest Rate," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 23(2), pages 213-234, December.
    11. Hiraki, Takato & Takezawa, Nobuya, 1997. "How sensitive is short-term Japanese interest rate volatility to the level of the interest rate?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 325-332, November.
    12. Robert R. Bliss & David C. Smith, 1997. "The stability of interest rate processes," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 97-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    13. J L Breeden & D Ingram, 2010. "Monte Carlo scenario generation for retail loan portfolios," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(3), pages 399-410, March.
    14. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Richard Stanton & Robert F. Whitelaw, 1999. "A Multifactor, Nonlinear, Continuous-Time Model of Interest Rate Volatility," NBER Working Papers 7213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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