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Adjusted Employment-to-Population Ratio as an Indicator of Labor Market Strength

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Abstract

As a measure of labor market strength, the raw employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) confounds employment outcomes with labor supply behavior. Movement in the EPOP depends on the relative movements of the employment rate (one minus the unemployment rate) and the labor force participation rate. This paper proposes an adjustment to the calculation of the EPOP using individual microdata to account for both individual characteristics and the probability of labor force participation, which can used to assess the strength of the labor market.

Suggested Citation

  • Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2014. "Adjusted Employment-to-Population Ratio as an Indicator of Labor Market Strength," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2014-08
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kenneth J. Matheny, 2009. "Trends in the aggregate labor force," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Jul), pages 297-310.
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    6. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    7. Richard G. Anderson, 2012. "How positive are recent employment and labor market trends?," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2004. "A Closer Look at the Employment Impact of the Americans with Disabilities Act," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(4).
    9. Thomas A. Mroz & Yaraslau V. Zayats, 2008. "Arbitrarily Normalized Coefficients, Information Sets, and False Reports of "Biases" in Binary Outcome Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 406-413, August.
    10. Daniel Aaronson & Jonathan Davis & Luojia Hu, 2012. "Explaining the decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Mar.
    11. Julie L. Hotchkiss & Fernando Rios-Avila, 2013. "Identifying Factors behind the Decline in the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 3(1), pages 257-275, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marianne Bitler & Hilary Hoynes, 2016. "The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same? The Safety Net and Poverty in the Great Recession," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 403-444.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EPOP; employment-to-population ratio; labor force participation; unemployment rates; employment rate; structural versus cyclical;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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