IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedlrv/y2009ijulp297-310nv.91no.4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trends in the aggregate labor force

Author

Listed:
  • Kenneth J. Matheny

Abstract

Trend growth in the labor force is a key determinant of trends in employment and gross domestic product (GDP). Forecasts by Macroeconomic Advisers (MA) have long anticipated a marked slowing in trend growth of the labor force that would contribute to a slowing in potential GDP growth. This is reflected in MA's forecast that the aggregate rate of labor force participation will trend down, especially after 2010, largely in response to the aging of the baby boom generation, whose members are beginning to approach typical retirement ages. Expectations for a downward trajectory for the participation rate and a slowing in trend labor force growth are not unique. However, this article reports on MA research suggesting that the opposite is possible: that the slowdown in trend labor force growth could be relatively modest and that the trend in the aggregate rate of labor force participation will decline little, if at all, over the next decade.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth J. Matheny, 2009. "Trends in the aggregate labor force," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Jul), pages 297-310.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2009:i:jul:p:297-310:n:v.91no.4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/09/07/Matheny.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gopi Shah Goda & John B. Shoven & Sita Nataraj Slavov, 2009. "Removing the Disincentives in Social Security for Long Careers," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment, pages 21-38, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Alicia H. Munnell & Steven A. Sass, 2007. "The Labor Supply of Older Americans," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2007-12, Center for Retirement Research, revised Jun 2007.
    3. Stephanie Aaronson & Bruce Fallick & Andrew Figura & Jonathan Pingle & William Wascher, 2006. "The Recent Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate and Its Implications for Potential Labor Supply," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 37(1), pages 69-154.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2014. "Adjusted Employment-to-Population Ratio as an Indicator of Labor Market Strength," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guy Lacroix & Pierre-Carl Michaud, 2024. "Tax Incentives and Older Workers: Evidence from Canada," Cahiers de recherche / Working Papers 02, Chaire de recherche Jacques-Parizeau en politiques économiques / Jacques-Parizeau Research Chair in Economic Policy.
    2. Teresa Ghilarducci & Michael Papadopoulos & Anthony Webb, 2020. "The Illusory Benefits of Working Longer on Financial Preparedness for Retirement," SCEPA working paper series. 2020-02, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    3. Hélène Périvier, 2008. "Les femmes sur le marché du travail aux Etats-Unis," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-00973039, HAL.
    4. Sudipto Banerjee & David Blau, 2016. "Employment Trends by Age in the United States: Why Are Older Workers Different?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 51(1), pages 163-199.
    5. Michelacci, Claudio & Pijoan-Mas, Josep, 2016. "Labor supply with job assignment under balanced growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 110-140.
    6. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1203 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ivan O. KITOV, 2008. "The Driving Force of Labor Force Participation in Developed Countries," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 203-222.
    8. Willem Van Zandweghe, 2012. "Interpreting the recent decline in labor force participation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 97(Q I), pages 5-34.
    9. Hélène Périvier, 2008. "Les femmes sur le marché du travail aux États-Unis," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2008-12, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    10. Robert W. Fairlie & Kanika Kapur & Susan Gates, 2016. "Job Lock: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 92-121, January.
    11. Robert A. Moffitt, 2012. "The Reveral of the Employment-Population Ratio in the 2000s: Facts and Explanations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 201-264.
    12. Marianna Kudlyak, 2013. "A Cohort Model of Labor Force Participation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 1Q, pages 25-43.
    13. ., 2013. "Revisiting U.S. Productivity Growth over the Past Century with a View of the Future," Chapters, in: D. S.P. Rao & Bart van Ark (ed.), World Economic Performance, chapter 12, pages 317-370, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2009. "Measures of per Capita Hours and Their Implications for the Technology‐Hours Debate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1071-1097, September.
    15. Jeffrey B. Liebman & Erzo F. P. Luttmer, 2012. "The Perception of Social Security Incentives for Labor Supply and Retirement: The Median Voter Knows More Than You'd Think," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 1-42.
    16. Alonso-Ortiz, Jorge, 2014. "Social security and retirement across the OECD," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 300-316.
    17. John Laitner, 2018. "Addressing Social Security’s Solvency While Promoting High Labor Force Participation," Working Papers wp386, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    18. Gopi Shah Goda & John B. Shoven & Sita Nataraj Slavov, 2011. "Implicit Taxes on Work from Social Security and Medicare," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 25(1), pages 69-88.
    19. Hélène Périvier, 2007. "Les femmes sur le marché du travail aux Etats-Unis: une mise en perspective avec la France et la Suède," Working Papers hal-00972845, HAL.
    20. Mary J. Lopez & Sita Slavov, 2020. "Do immigrants delay retirement and social security claiming?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(10), pages 1105-1123, February.
    21. Dunsch, Sophie, 2016. "Does labor force participation rates of youth vary within the business cycle? Evidence from Germany and Poland," Discussion Papers 386, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor supply;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2009:i:jul:p:297-310:n:v.91no.4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Scott St. Louis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.