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Lockdown policies and the dynamics of a pandemic: foresight, rebounds and optimality

Author

Listed:
  • Hubert Kempf

    (Université Paris-Saclay, ENS Paris-Saclay)

  • stéphane Rossignol

    (Université Paris 8)

Abstract

We study optimal lockdown decisions taken by a policymaker facing a pandemic modelled according to the standard SIR deterministic model. The policymaker trades off the economic costs and the mortality record of the pandemic which depend on the severity and duration of the lockdown. We contrast the shortsightedness versus the farsightedness of the policymaker. Policy-related peaks and rebounds are characterized and explain why a zero-Covid policy is self-defeating. When the ICU constraint is present and the policymaker is shortsighed, there is a large intermediate range of 'values of life' for which the optimal lockdown consists in exactly saturating this constraint. A farsighted policy is not too severe so as to avoid a rebound. The shortest duration consistent with a given health goal is not the less costly. In contrast with the case of shortsightness, a farsighted policy taking into account the ICU constraint sets successive lockdowns of decreasing severity. We address the impact of vaccination on the optimal choice of a lockdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Hubert Kempf & stéphane Rossignol, 2023. "Lockdown policies and the dynamics of a pandemic: foresight, rebounds and optimality," Documents de recherche 23-06, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    • Handle: RePEc:eve:wpaper:23-06
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pandemic; lockdown policy; Covid-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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