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The Economic Effects of COVID-19 Containment Measures

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Pragyan Deb
  • Davide Furceri
  • Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
  • Nour Tawk

Abstract

Containment measures are crucial to halt the spread of the 2019 COVID-19 pandemic but entail large short-term economic costs. This paper tries to quantify these effects using daily global data on real-time containment measures and indicators of economic activity such as Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) emissions, flights, energy consumption, maritime trade, and mobility indices. Results suggest that containment measures have had, on average, a very large impact on economic activity—equivalent to a loss of about 15 percent in industrial production over a 30-day period following their implementation. Using novel data on fiscal and monetary policy measures used in response to the crisis, we find that these policy measures were effective in mitigating some of these economic costs. We also find that while workplace closures and stay-at-home orders are more effective in curbing infections, they are associated with the largest economic costs. Finally, while easing of containment measures has led to a pickup in economic activity, the effect has been lower (in absolute value) than that from the tightening of measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Pragyan Deb & Davide Furceri & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Nour Tawk, 2020. "The Economic Effects of COVID-19 Containment Measures," IMF Working Papers 2020/158, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/158
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; containment measure; public transport; policy response; types containment; time trend; measures to the spread; stringency index; different containment measure; costly containment measure; containment measures to the spread of the virus; relaxation of containment measure; monetary policy support; measures to the spread of the virus; COVID-19; Industrial production; Fiscal stimulus; Central bank policy rate; Global; pandemics; containment measures; monetary policy stimulus;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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