IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ess/wpaper/id7279.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Long Run Trends in Unemployment and Labor Force Participation in China

Author

Listed:
  • Shuaizhang Feng
  • Yingyao Hu
  • Robert Moffitt

Abstract

Unemployment rates in countries across the world are typically positively correlated with GDP. China is an unusual outlier from the pattern, with abnormally low, and suspiciously stable, unemployment rates according to its official statistics. This paper calculates, for the first time, China’s unemployment rate from 1988 to 2009 using a more reliable, nationally representative household survey in China. The unemployment rates the paper calculates differ dramatically from those supplied in official data and are much more consistent with what is known about China’s labor market and how it has changed over time in response to structural changes and other significant events.

Suggested Citation

  • Shuaizhang Feng & Yingyao Hu & Robert Moffitt, 2015. "Long Run Trends in Unemployment and Labor Force Participation in China," Working Papers id:7279, eSocialSciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:7279
    Note: Institutional Papers
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.esocialsciences.org/Articles/show_Article.aspx?acat=InstitutionalPapers&aid=7279
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shuaizhang Feng & Yingyao Hu, 2013. "Misclassification Errors and the Underestimation of the US Unemployment Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 1054-1070, April.
    2. Suqin Ge & Dennis Tao Yang, 2014. "Changes In China'S Wage Structure," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 300-336, April.
    3. Meng, Xin & Shen, Kailing & Xue, Sen, 2013. "Economic reform, education expansion, and earnings inequality for urban males in China, 1988–2009," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 227-244.
    4. Xin Meng, 2012. "Labor Market Outcomes and Reforms in China," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 75-102, Fall.
    5. Martin Ravallion & Shaohua Chen, 1999. "When Economic Reform is Faster Then Statistical Reform: Measuring and Explaining Income Inequality in Rural China," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(1), pages 33-56, February.
    6. Marcos D. Chamon & Eswar S. Prasad, 2010. "Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 93-130, January.
    7. Margaret Maurer-Fazio & Rachel Connelly & Lan Chen & Lixin Tang, 2011. "Childcare, Eldercare, and Labor Force Participation of Married Women in Urban China, 1982–2000," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 46(2), pages 261-294.
    8. Rawski, Thomas G., 2001. "What is happening to China's GDP statistics?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 347-354.
    9. Junsen Zhang & Jun Han & Pak-Wai Liu & Yaohui Zhao, 2008. "Trends in the Gender Earnings Differential in Urban China, 1988–2004," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 61(2), pages 224-243, January.
    10. Zhang, Junsen & Zhao, Yaohui & Park, Albert & Song, Xiaoqing, 2005. "Economic returns to schooling in urban China, 1988 to 2001," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 730-752, December.
    11. Fenglian Du & Xiao-yuan Dong, 2013. "Women's Employment and Child Care Choices in Urban China during the Economic Transition," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(1), pages 131-155.
    12. Meiyan Wang & Fang Cai, 2008. "Gender Earnings Differential in Urban China," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 442-454, May.
    13. Liu, Qian, 2012. "Unemployment and labor force participation in urban China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 18-33.
    14. Giles, John & Park, Albert & Zhang, Juwei, 2005. "What is China's true unemployment rate?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 149-170.
    15. David Turnham & Deniz Eröcal, 1990. "Unemployment in Developing Countries: New Light on an Old Problem," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 22, OECD Publishing.
    16. Holz, Carsten A., 2014. "The quality of China's GDP statistics," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 309-338.
    17. Hongbin Cai & Yuyu Chen & Li-An Zhou, 2010. "Income and Consumption Inequality in Urban China: 1992-2003," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(3), pages 385-413, April.
    18. Hongbin Li & Lei Li & Binzhen Wu & Yanyan Xiong, 2012. "The End of Cheap Chinese Labor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 57-74, Fall.
    19. Gregory Chow, 2006. "Are Chinese Official Statistics Reliable?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 52(2), pages 396-414, June.
    20. Lin, Justin Yifu, 1992. "Rural Reforms and Agricultural Growth in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 34-51, March.
    21. Alwyn Young, 2003. "Gold into Base Metals: Productivity Growth in the People's Republic of China during the Reform Period," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1220-1261, December.
    22. Dong, Xiao-Yuan & Putterman, Louis, 2003. "Soft budget constraints, social burdens, and labor redundancy in China's state industry," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 110-133, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sangui Wang & Yu Wang & Fengfeng Gu & Danyan Lu, 2015. "Living Wage Benchmark Report: Urban China, Shenzhen (August 2015)," Global Living Wage Coalition (GLWC) 15-01-06, Universidad Privada Boliviana.
    2. Jie Chen & Mingzhi Hu, 2019. "What types of homeowners are more likely to be entrepreneurs? The evidence from China," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 633-649, March.
    3. Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng (Michael) Song, 2016. "The Long Shadow of China’s Fiscal Expansion," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 129-181.
    4. Ting Wang & Areendam Chanda, 2016. "Manufacturing Growth and Local Multipliers in China," Departmental Working Papers 2016-02, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    5. Fu, Shihe & Liao, Yu & Zhang, Junfu, 2016. "The effect of housing wealth on labor force participation: Evidence from China," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 59-69.
    6. Wang, Ting & Chanda, Areendam, 2018. "Manufacturing growth and local employment multipliers in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 515-543.
    7. Haiyan Ding & Hui He, 2018. "A Tale of Transition: An Empirical Analysis of Economic Inequality in Urban China, 1986-2009," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 106-137, July.
    8. Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng Michael Song, 2016. "The Long Shadow of a Fiscal Expansion," NBER Working Papers 22801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Asadullah, M. Niaz & Xiao, Saizi & Yeoh, Emile, 2018. "Subjective well-being in China, 2005–2010: The role of relative income, gender, and location," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 83-101.
    10. Ding Lu, 2017. "China's Growth Slowdown and Prospects for Becoming a High-Income Developed Economy," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 16(1), pages 89-113, Winter/Sp.
    11. Iyer, Lakshmi & Meng, Xin & Qian, Nancy & Zhao, Xiaoxue, 2019. "Economic transition and private-sector labor: Evidence from urban China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 579-600.
    12. Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng (Michael) Song, 2016. "The Long Shadow of China’s Fiscal Expansion," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 129-181.
    13. You, Jing & Yi, Xuejie & Chen, Meng, 2016. "Love, Life, and “Leftover Ladies” in Urban China," MPRA Paper 70494, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Chen, Xi & Ge, Suqin, 2018. "Social norms and female labor force participation in urban China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 966-987.
    15. Gary Jefferson, 2016. "China's New Lost Generation: The Casualty of China's Economic Transformation," Working Papers 107, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Feng, Shuaizhang & Hu, Yingyao & Moffitt, Robert, 2017. "Long run trends in unemployment and labor force participation in urban China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 304-324.
    2. Zhou, Yixiao & Tyers, Rod, 2019. "Automation and inequality in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    3. Hare, Denise, 2016. "What accounts for the decline in labor force participation among married women in urban China, 1991–2011?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 251-266.
    4. Shuaizhang Feng & Naijia Guo, 2019. "Labor Market Dynamics in Urban China and the Role of the State Sector," Working Papers 2019-008, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    5. Björn Gustafsson & Haiyuan Wan, 2018. "Wage growth and inequality in urban China: 1988–2013," WIDER Working Paper Series 163, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Feng, Shuaizhang & Guo, Naijia, 2019. "Labor Market Dynamics in Urban China and the Role of the State Sector," IZA Discussion Papers 12170, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Sinclair, Tara M., 2019. "Characteristics and implications of Chinese macroeconomic data revisions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1108-1117.
    8. Gustafsson, Björn & LI, Shi & Sato, Hiroshi, 2014. "Data for studying earnings, the distribution of household income and poverty in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 419-431.
    9. Shuaizhang Feng & Gaojie Tang, 2019. "Accounting For Urban China'S Rising Income Inequality: The Roles Of Labor Market, Human Capital, And Marriage Market Factors," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 997-1015, April.
    10. Bjorn Gustafsson & Sai Ding, 2011. "Unemployment and the Rising Number of Non-Workers in Urban China: Causes and Distributional Consequences," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 201117, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    11. Thomas Piketty & Li Yang & Gabriel Zucman, 2019. "Capital Accumulation, Private Property, and Rising Inequality in China, 1978–2015," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(7), pages 2469-2496, July.
    12. Cook, Jonathan Aaron, 2013. "Does Chinese Inflation Understate Cost of Living?," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150571, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Gustafsson, Björn & Wan, Haiyuan, 2020. "Wage growth and inequality in urban China: 1988–2013," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    14. Simon Alder & Lin Shao & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2012. "The Effect of Economic Reform and Industrial Policy in a Panel of Chinese Cities," DEGIT Conference Papers c017_061, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    15. Denise Hare, 2018. "Examining The Timing Of Women'S Retirement In Urban China: A Discrete Time Hazard Rate Approach," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(3), pages 451-466, July.
    16. Qian Sun, 2024. "Constructing alternative unemployment statistics in China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1319-1354, October.
    17. LEE, Jong-Wha & Wie, Dainn, 2017. "Wage Structure and Gender Earnings Differentials in China and India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 313-329.
    18. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2009. "Business cycle and inflation synchronisation in Mainland China and Hong Kong," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 404-418, June.
    19. Bhatt, Vipul & Liao, Mouhua & Zhao, Min Qiang, 2023. "Government policy and land price dynamics: A quantitative assessment of China’s factor market reforms," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    20. Meng, Xin & Shen, Kailing & Xue, Sen, 2013. "Economic reform, education expansion, and earnings inequality for urban males in China, 1988–2009," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 227-244.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; unemployment rate; nationality; labour markets; labour force participation; official data; income; demographics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:7279. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Padma Prakash (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.esocialsciences.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.