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Adaptation, Plasticity, and Extinction in a Changing Environment: Towards a Predictive Theory

Author

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  • Luis-Miguel Chevin
  • Russell Lande
  • Georgina M Mace

Abstract

A simple evolutionary model is used to understand the critical rate of environmental change beyond which a population must decline and go extinct. The model is used to highlight the major determinants of extinction risk in a changing environment, and identify research needs for improved predictions based on projected changes in environmental variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis-Miguel Chevin & Russell Lande & Georgina M Mace, 2010. "Adaptation, Plasticity, and Extinction in a Changing Environment: Towards a Predictive Theory," Working Papers id:2494, eSocialSciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2494
    Note: Institutional Papers
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Harte & Annette Ostling & Jessica L. Green & Ann Kinzig, 2004. "Climate change and extinction risk," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(6995), pages 34-34, July.
    2. Chris D. Thomas & Alison Cameron & Rhys E. Green & Michel Bakkenes & Linda J. Beaumont & Yvonne C. Collingham & Barend F. N. Erasmus & Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira & Alan Grainger & Lee Hannah & Lesle, 2004. "Extinction risk from climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 427(6970), pages 145-148, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Brooks, Wesley R. & Newbold, Stephen C., 2014. "An updated biodiversity nonuse value function for use in climate change integrated assessment models," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 342-349.
    2. Davison, Raziel & Stadman, Marc & Jongejans, Eelke, 2019. "Stochastic effects contribute to population fitness differences," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 408(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Reid S. Brennan & James A. deMayo & Hans G. Dam & Michael B. Finiguerra & Hannes Baumann & Melissa H. Pespeni, 2022. "Loss of transcriptional plasticity but sustained adaptive capacity after adaptation to global change conditions in a marine copepod," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Wesley R. Brooks & Stephen C. Newbold, 2013. "Ecosystem damages in integrated assessment models of climate change," NCEE Working Paper Series 201302, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Mar 2013.
    5. Ayllón, Daniel & Railsback, Steven F. & Vincenzi, Simone & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Almodóvar, Ana & Grimm, Volker, 2016. "InSTREAM-Gen: Modelling eco-evolutionary dynamics of trout populations under anthropogenic environmental change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 326(C), pages 36-53.
    6. Freitas, Osmar & Araujo, Sabrina B.L. & Campos, Paulo R.A., 2022. "Speciation in a metapopulation model upon environmental changes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 468(C).
    7. Karen B Strier & Anthony R Ives, 2012. "Unexpected Demography in the Recovery of an Endangered Primate Population," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(9), pages 1-11, September.
    8. Minke B. W. Langenhof & Jan Komdeur, 2013. "Coping with Change: A Closer Look at the Underlying Attributes of Change and the Individual Response to Unstable Environments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(5), pages 1-25, April.
    9. Urtzi Enriquez-Urzelai & Nicola Bernardo & Gregorio Moreno-Rueda & Albert Montori & Gustavo Llorente, 2019. "Are amphibians tracking their climatic niches in response to climate warming? A test with Iberian amphibians," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 289-301, May.
    10. Greenspoon, Philip B. & Mideo, Nicole, 2017. "Evolutionary rescue of a parasite population by mutation rate evolution," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 64-75.
    11. Anderson, James J. & Gurarie, Eliezer & Bracis, Chloe & Burke, Brian J. & Laidre, Kristin L., 2013. "Modeling climate change impacts on phenology and population dynamics of migratory marine species," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 264(C), pages 83-97.
    12. Konstantinos Kougioumoutzis & Ioannis P. Kokkoris & Arne Strid & Thomas Raus & Panayotis Dimopoulos, 2021. "Climate-Change Impacts on the Southernmost Mediterranean Arctic-Alpine Plant Populations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-23, December.
    13. Matt J. Michel & Huicheng Chien & Collin E. Beachum & Micah G. Bennett & Jason H. Knouft, 2017. "Climate change, hydrology, and fish morphology: predictions using phenotype-environment associations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 563-576, February.
    14. Harry R Harding & Timothy A C Gordon & Emma Eastcott & Stephen D Simpson & Andrew N Radford & Leigh Simmons, 2019. "Causes and consequences of intraspecific variation in animal responses to anthropogenic noise," Behavioral Ecology, International Society for Behavioral Ecology, vol. 30(6), pages 1501-1511.
    15. Bruno R Ribeiro & Lilian P Sales & Paulo De Marco Jr. & Rafael Loyola, 2016. "Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-13, November.
    16. Robert J. Knell & Stephen J. Thackeray, 2016. "Voltinism and resilience to climate-induced phenological mismatch," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 525-539, August.
    17. Marie Rescan & Daphné Grulois & Enrique Ortega Aboud & Pierre de Villemereuil & Luis-Miguel Chevin, 2021. "Predicting population genetic change in an autocorrelated random environment: Insights from a large automated experiment," PLOS Genetics, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(6), pages 1-23, June.
    18. Bram Kuijper & Rufus A Johnstone & Stuart Townley, 2014. "The Evolution of Multivariate Maternal Effects," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(4), pages 1-11, April.
    19. Michael J. Noonan & Chris Newman & Andrew Markham & Kirstin Bilham & Christina D. Buesching & David W. Macdonald, 2018. "In situ behavioral plasticity as compensation for weather variability: implications for future climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 457-471, August.
    20. Maldonado-Chaparro, Adriana A. & Read, Dwight W. & Blumstein, Daniel T., 2017. "Can individual variation in phenotypic plasticity enhance population viability?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 352(C), pages 19-30.
    21. Yahuza Lurwanu & Yan-Ping Wang & Waheed Abdul & Jiasui Zhan & Li-Na Yang, 2020. "Temperature-Mediated Plasticity Regulates the Adaptation of Phytophthora infestans to Azoxystrobin Fungicide," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-15, February.
    22. Fatih Fazlioglu & Justin S. H. Wan, 2021. "Warming matters: alpine plant responses to experimental warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-17, February.

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