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Supplying Synthetic Crude Oil from Canadian Oil Sands: A Comparative Study of the Costs and CO2 Emissions of Mining and In-situ Recovery

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  • Aurélie Méjean
  • Chris Hope

Abstract

High crude oil prices and the eventual decline of conventional oil production raise the issue of alternative fuels such as non-conventional oil. The paper describes a simple probabilistic model of the costs of synthetic crude oil (SCO) produced from Canadian oil sands. Synthetic crude oil is obtained by upgrading bitumen that is first produced through mining or in-situ recovery techniques. This forward-looking analysis quantifies the effects of learning and production constraints on the costs of supplying synthetic crude oil from Canadian bitumen deposits. The results show the uncertainties associated with the future costs of synthetic crude oil. Carbon costs have a large impact of the total costs of synthetic crude oil, in particular in the case of synthetic crude oil from in-situ bitumen, due to the carbon-intensity of the recovery techniques. The influence of each parameter on the supply costs is examined. In the case of mined SCO, the maximum production rate, the ultimate recovery rate and the depletion parameters show the largest influence on the results, while learning parameters dominate in the case of in-situ SCO.
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  • Aurélie Méjean & Chris Hope, 2010. "Supplying Synthetic Crude Oil from Canadian Oil Sands: A Comparative Study of the Costs and CO2 Emissions of Mining and In-situ Recovery," Working Papers EPRG 1005, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg1005
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    Cited by:

    1. Omidkar, Ali & Haddadian, Kamran & Es'haghian, Razieh & Alagumalai, Avinash & Li, Zhaofei & Song, Hua, 2024. "Novel energy efficient in-situ bitumen upgrading technology to facilitate pipeline transportation using natural gas: Sustainability evaluation using a new hybrid approach based on fuzzy multi-criteria," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    2. Rui Xing & Diego V. Chiappori & Evan J. Arbuckle & Matthew T. Binsted & Evan G. R. Davies, 2021. "Canadian Oil Sands Extraction and Upgrading: A Synthesis of the Data on Energy Consumption, CO 2 Emissions, and Supply Costs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-14, October.
    3. Aurélie Méjean & Chris Hope, 2010. "The Effect of CO2 Pricing on Conventional and Non-Conventional Oil Supply and Demand," Working Papers EPRG 1029, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    4. Chi Yong & Mu Tong & Zhongyi Yang & Jixian Zhou, 2023. "Conventional Natural Gas Project Investment and Decision Making under Multiple Uncertainties," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-30, February.
    5. Hosseini, Seyed Hossein & Shakouri G., Hamed, 2016. "A study on the future of unconventional oil development under different oil price scenarios: A system dynamics approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 64-74.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-conventional oil; Uncertainty; Social cost of carbon;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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