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Alternative projection of the world energy consumption-in comparison with the 2010 international energy outlook

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  • Chang, Yusang
  • Lee, Jinsoo
  • Yoon, Hyerim

Abstract

A projection of future energy consumption is a vital input to many analyses of economic, energy, and environmental policies. We provide a benchmark projection which can be used to evaluate any other projection. Specifically, we base our projection of future energy consumption on its historical trend, which can be identified by an experience model. We compare our projection with forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for eight countries—U.S., China, India, Brazil, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Mexico. We find that the EIA's projections are lower than ours in the case of China, the U.S., India, Japan, and Mexico. This indicates that for these five countries, the EIA uses assumptions which cannot be rationalized by historical data.

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  • Chang, Yusang & Lee, Jinsoo & Yoon, Hyerim, 2012. "Alternative projection of the world energy consumption-in comparison with the 2010 international energy outlook," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 154-160.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:50:y:2012:i:c:p:154-160
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.07.059
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Aydin, Gokhan, 2014. "Modeling of energy consumption based on economic and demographic factors: The case of Turkey with projections," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 382-389.
    3. Liao, Hua & Cai, Jia-Wei & Yang, Dong-Wei & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2016. "Why did the historical energy forecasting succeed or fail? A case study on IEA's projection," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 90-96.
    4. Rashidi, Hamidreza & GhaffarianHoseini, Ali & GhaffarianHoseini, Amirhosein & Nik Sulaiman, Nik Meriam & Tookey, John & Hashim, Nur Awanis, 2015. "Application of wastewater treatment in sustainable design of green built environments: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 845-856.
    5. Yu Sang Chang & Dosoung Choi & Hann Earl Kim, 2017. "Dynamic Trends of Carbon Intensities among 127 Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-21, December.
    6. Rosenberg, Eva & Lind, Arne & Espegren, Kari Aamodt, 2013. "The impact of future energy demand on renewable energy production – Case of Norway," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 419-431.
    7. Hann-Earl Kim & Yu-Sang Chang & Hee-Jin Kim, 2021. "Dynamic Electricity Intensity Trends in 91 Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-26, April.
    8. Vítor JPD Martinho, 2018. "A transversal perspective on global energy production and consumption: An approach based on convergence theory," Energy & Environment, , vol. 29(4), pages 556-575, June.

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