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Shipping Inspections, Detentions, and Accidents: An Empirical Analysis of Risk Dimensions

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  • Heij, C.
  • Knapp, S.

Abstract

Inspections play a key role in keeping vessels safe. Inspection authorities employ different policies to decide which vessels to inspect, including type of vessel, age, and flag. Attention for vessel history is usually restricted only to past detentions. This paper shows that it helps to combine past detention with past accident information to target risky vessels for inspection and to prevent serious and very serious accidents. Five methods are presented to classify risk of vessels based on these two risk dimensions, i.e., detention risk and accident risk, each of which involves an extensive set of risk factors. It is shown that these classification methods have predictive power for future serious and very serious accidents. Compared to using only detention information, incorporation of accident risk improves inspection hit rates for vessels with future accidents by 30-50%, depending on the applied inspection rate. It is recommended to focus on vessels where both risks are relatively high. A practical example shows management implications for inspection authorities how to prevent missing risky ships and how to prioritize inspection areas defined in terms of eight risk domains that include collisions, groundings, engine and hull failures, loss of life, fire, and pollution.

Suggested Citation

  • Heij, C. & Knapp, S., 2018. "Shipping Inspections, Detentions, and Accidents: An Empirical Analysis of Risk Dimensions," Econometric Institute Research Papers 2018-36, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:116490
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Franses,Philip Hans & Paap,Richard, 2010. "Quantitative Models in Marketing Research," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521143653, October.
    2. Sabine Knapp & Philip Hans Franses, 2007. "A global view on port state control: econometric analysis of the differences across port state control regimes," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(5), pages 453-482, October.
    3. Yang, Zhisen & Yang, Zaili & Yin, Jingbo, 2018. "Realising advanced risk-based port state control inspection using data-driven Bayesian networks," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 38-56.
    4. Z. L. Yang & J. Wang & K. X. Li, 2013. "Maritime safety analysis in retrospect," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 261-277, May.
    5. Pierre Cariou & Maximo Q. Mejia & Francois-Charles Wolff, 2007. "An econometric analysis of deficiencies noted in port state control inspections," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 243-258, June.
    6. Heij, C. & Knapp, S., 2018. "Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2018-09, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    7. Ji, Xichen & Brinkhuis, Jan & Knapp, Sabine, 2015. "A method to measure enforcement effort in shipping with incomplete information," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 162-170.
    8. Perepelkin, Mihail & Knapp, Sabine & Perepelkin, German & de Pooter, Michiel, 2010. "An improved methodology to measure flag performance for the shipping industry," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 395-405, May.
    9. Christiaan Heij & Sabine Knapp, 2018. "Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 604-621, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Knapp, S. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & B. Whitby (Bruce), 2020. "Measuring the effect of perceived corruption on detention and incident risk – an empirical analysis," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2020-07, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Maritime safety; inspection policy; vessel-specific risk; detention risk; accident risk; risk domains;
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