IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v228y2022ics0951832022003763.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of dynamic inspection records on port state control efficiency using Bayesian network analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Fan, Lixian
  • Zhang, Meng
  • Yin, Jingbo
  • Zhang, Jinfen

Abstract

The risk level of shipping transportation is important as it will cause enormous losses once an accident occurs. This study focuses on the effect of Port State Control as which is gradually becoming an important defence for maritime safety. It employs the Exploratory Factor Analysis to analyse the 17 deficiency items obtained from the Tokyo Memorandum of Understandings (MoU) and extracts three hidden variables representing different ship defect levels. The Bayesian network method is then adopted to establish the ship accident model considering the dynamic ship defect levels. After credibility and sensitivity tests of the model, the estimated results verify the dynamics of the three defect level variables and their effects on ship accident. Specifically, high levels of safety and labour condition related defects significantly increase the accident rate, and both of them are noticeably influenced by historical inspection records as well. It also discloses the improvement of defect levels for ships that have been detained in the first inspection. So, specific and diversified designation of the detain policy accordingly would be more effective in improving ship safety. These provide references for port authorities to optimize the inspection process and ultimately improve ship quality and prevent maritime accidents.

Suggested Citation

  • Fan, Lixian & Zhang, Meng & Yin, Jingbo & Zhang, Jinfen, 2022. "Impacts of dynamic inspection records on port state control efficiency using Bayesian network analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:228:y:2022:i:c:s0951832022003763
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2022.108753
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832022003763
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2022.108753?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dinis, D. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2020. "Probabilistic approach for characterising the static risk of ships using Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    2. Wang, Yuhong & Zhang, Fan & Yang, Zhisen & Yang, Zaili, 2021. "Incorporation of deficiency data into the analysis of the dependency and interdependency among the risk factors influencing port state control inspection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    3. Liu, Kezhong & Yu, Qing & Yang, Zhisen & Wan, Chengpeng & Yang, Zaili, 2022. "BN-based port state control inspection for Paris MoU: New risk factors and probability training using big data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    4. Wang, Shuaian & Yan, Ran & Qu, Xiaobo, 2019. "Development of a non-parametric classifier: Effective identification, algorithm, and applications in port state control for maritime transportation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 129-157.
    5. Heij, C. & Knapp, S., 2018. "Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2018-09, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    6. Cariou, Pierre & Mejia Jr., Maximo Q. & Wolff, Francois-Charles, 2008. "On the effectiveness of port state control inspections," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 491-503, May.
    7. Junjie Fu & Xinqiang Chen & Shubo Wu & Chaojian Shi & Jiansen Zhao & Jiangfeng Xian, 2020. "Ship Detention Situation Prediction via Optimized Analytic Hierarchy Process and Naïve Bayes Model," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-11, July.
    8. Yang, Zhisen & Wan, Chengpeng & Yang, Zaili & Yu, Qing, 2021. "Using Bayesian network-based TOPSIS to aid dynamic port state control detention risk control decision," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    9. Kevin X. Li & Haisha Zheng, 2008. "Enforcement of law by the Port State Control (PSC)," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 61-71, February.
    10. Christiaan Heij & Sabine Knapp, 2018. "Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 604-621, July.
    11. Yu, Qing & Teixeira, Ângelo Palos & Liu, Kezhong & Rong, Hao & Guedes Soares, Carlos, 2021. "An integrated dynamic ship risk model based on Bayesian Networks and Evidential Reasoning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    12. Yang, Zhisen & Yang, Zaili & Teixeira, Angelo Palos, 2020. "Comparative analysis of the impact of new inspection regime on port state control inspection," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 65-80.
    13. Yang, Zhisen & Yang, Zaili & Yin, Jingbo & Qu, Zhuohua, 2018. "A risk-based game model for rational inspections in port state control," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 477-495.
    14. Cariou, Pierre & Wolff, Francois-Charles, 2015. "Identifying substandard vessels through Port State Control inspections: A new methodology for Concentrated Inspection Campaigns," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 27-39.
    15. Jiang, Dan & Wu, Bing & Cheng, Zhiyou & Xue, Jie & van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M., 2021. "Towards a probabilistic model for estimation of grounding accidents in fluctuating backwater zone of the Three Gorges Reservoir," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    16. Yang, Zhisen & Yang, Zaili & Yin, Jingbo, 2018. "Realising advanced risk-based port state control inspection using data-driven Bayesian networks," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 38-56.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Song, Xueying & Qi, Lei & Liu, Shiyan & Ding, Shuiting & Li, Daqing, 2024. "Simple analysis of complex system safety based on Finite State Machine Network and phase space theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    2. Zhu, Jiang-Hong & Yang, Qiang & Jiang, Jun, 2023. "Identifying crucial deficiency categories influencing ship detention: A method of combining cloud model and prospect theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    3. Fan, Hanwen & Jia, Haiying & He, Xuzhuo & Lyu, Jing, 2024. "Navigating uncertainty: A dynamic Bayesian network-based risk assessment framework for maritime trade routes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yang, Zhisen & Wan, Chengpeng & Yu, Qing & Yin, Jingbo & Yang, Zaili, 2023. "A machine learning-based Bayesian model for predicting the duration of ship detention in PSC inspection," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    2. Yang, Zhisen & Yu, Qing & Yang, Zaili & Wan, Chengpeng, 2024. "A data-driven Bayesian model for evaluating the duration of detention of ships in PSC inspections," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    3. Liu, Kezhong & Yu, Qing & Yang, Zhisen & Wan, Chengpeng & Yang, Zaili, 2022. "BN-based port state control inspection for Paris MoU: New risk factors and probability training using big data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    4. Wang, Yuhong & Zhang, Fan & Yang, Zhisen & Yang, Zaili, 2021. "Incorporation of deficiency data into the analysis of the dependency and interdependency among the risk factors influencing port state control inspection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    5. Zhu, Jiang-Hong & Yang, Qiang & Jiang, Jun, 2023. "Identifying crucial deficiency categories influencing ship detention: A method of combining cloud model and prospect theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    6. Yang, Zhisen & Wan, Chengpeng & Yang, Zaili & Yu, Qing, 2021. "Using Bayesian network-based TOPSIS to aid dynamic port state control detention risk control decision," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    7. Antão, P. & Sun, S. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2023. "Quantitative assessment of ship collision risk influencing factors from worldwide accident and fleet data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    8. Wang, Shuaian & Yan, Ran & Qu, Xiaobo, 2019. "Development of a non-parametric classifier: Effective identification, algorithm, and applications in port state control for maritime transportation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 129-157.
    9. Xiao, Yi & Qi, Guanqiu & Jin, Mengjie & Yuen, Kum Fai & Chen, Zhuo & Li, Kevin X., 2021. "Efficiency of Port State Control inspection regimes: A comparative study," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 165-172.
    10. Dinis, D. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2020. "Probabilistic approach for characterising the static risk of ships using Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    11. Yu, Qing & Teixeira, Ângelo Palos & Liu, Kezhong & Rong, Hao & Guedes Soares, Carlos, 2021. "An integrated dynamic ship risk model based on Bayesian Networks and Evidential Reasoning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    12. Yan, Ran & Wang, Shuaian & Fagerholt, Kjetil, 2020. "A semi-“smart predict then optimize” (semi-SPO) method for efficient ship inspection," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 100-125.
    13. Yan, Ran & Wang, Shuaian & Zhen, Lu, 2023. "An extended smart “predict, and optimize” (SPO) framework based on similar sets for ship inspection planning," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    14. Yan, Ran & Mo, Haoyu & Guo, Xiaomeng & Yang, Ying & Wang, Shuaian, 2022. "Is port state control influenced by the COVID-19? Evidence from inspection data," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 82-103.
    15. Rong, H. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Maritime traffic probabilistic prediction based on ship motion pattern extraction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    16. Xiao, Yi & Wang, Grace & Ge, Ying-En & Xu, Qinyi & Li, Kevin X., 2021. "Game model for a new inspection regime of port state control under different reward and punishment conditions," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    17. Yan, Ran & Wang, Shuaian & Cao, Jiannong & Sun, Defeng, 2021. "Shipping Domain Knowledge Informed Prediction and Optimization in Port State Control," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 52-78.
    18. Xuecheng Tian & Yanxia Guan & Shuaian Wang, 2023. "A Decision-Focused Learning Framework for Vessel Selection Problem," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-13, August.
    19. Xuecheng Tian & Shuaian Wang, 2022. "Cost-Sensitive Laplacian Logistic Regression for Ship Detention Prediction," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.
    20. Li, Huanhuan & Çelik, Cihad & Bashir, Musa & Zou, Lu & Yang, Zaili, 2024. "Incorporation of a global perspective into data-driven analysis of maritime collision accident risk," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:228:y:2022:i:c:s0951832022003763. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.