IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/123566.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The legacies of war for Ukraine

Author

Listed:
  • Munroe, Ellen
  • Nosach, Anastasiia
  • Pedrozo, Moisés
  • Guarnieri, Eleonora
  • Riaño, Juan Felipe
  • Tur-Prats, Ana
  • Valencia Caicedo, Felipe

Abstract

This article reviews the literature on the multifaceted consequences of historical conflict. We revisit three key topics, which are especially relevant for the current Ukrainian context. (1) The negative long-term impact of bombing campaigns and political repression against civilians. (2) The interplay between forced migration, refugees and war. (3) The role of gender and war, with a special focus on sex ratios and conflict-related sexual violence. We conclude with an empirical investigation of the Russian war against Ukraine, including aforementioned historical determinants such as ethnic populations, historical political repression and voting outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Munroe, Ellen & Nosach, Anastasiia & Pedrozo, Moisés & Guarnieri, Eleonora & Riaño, Juan Felipe & Tur-Prats, Ana & Valencia Caicedo, Felipe, 2023. "The legacies of war for Ukraine," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123566, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:123566
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/123566/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claudia Goldin & Claudia Olivetti, 2013. "Shocking Labor Supply: A Reassessment of the Role of World War II on Women's Labor Supply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 257-262, May.
    2. Michal Bauer & Christopher Blattman & Julie Chytilová & Joseph Henrich & Edward Miguel & Tamar Mitts, 2016. "Can War Foster Cooperation?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 249-274, Summer.
    3. Thomas K. Bauer & Sebastian Braun & Michael Kvasnicka, 2013. "The Economic Integration of Forced Migrants: Evidence for Post‐War Germany," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123, pages 998-1024, September.
    4. Murard, Elie & Sakalli, Seyhun Orcan, 2018. "Mass Refugee Inflow and Long-Run Prosperity: Lessons from the Greek Population Resettlement," IZA Discussion Papers 11613, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Ajzenman, Nicolás & Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Guriev, Sergei, 2022. "Exposure to transit migration: Public attitudes and entrepreneurship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    6. Jörn Boehnke & Victor Gay, 2022. "The Missing Men: World War I and Female Labor Force Participation," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(4), pages 1209-1241.
    7. Jérôme Adda & Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2022. "The Dynamics of Return Migration, Human Capital Accumulation, and Wage Assimilation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(6), pages 2841-2871.
    8. Lochmann, Alexia & Rapoport, Hillel & Speciale, Biagio, 2019. "The effect of language training on immigrants’ economic integration: Empirical evidence from France," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 265-296.
    9. Andreas Lichter & Max Löffler & Sebastian Siegloch, 2021. "The Long-Term Costs of Government Surveillance: Insights from Stasi Spying in East Germany," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 741-789.
    10. Balkan, Binnur & Tok, Elif Ozcan & Torun, Huzeyfe & Tumen, Semih, 2018. "Immigration, Housing Rents, and Residential Segregation: Evidence from Syrian Refugees in Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 11611, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2013. "War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust, and Conflict," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(3), pages 1114-1147.
    12. Thorsten Rogall, 2021. "Mobilizing the Masses for Genocide," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(1), pages 41-72, January.
    13. Nicolás Ajzenman & Cevat Giray Aksoy & Sergei Guriev, 2020. "Exposure to Transit Migration, Public Attitudes and Entrepreneurship," Department of Economics Working Papers wp_gob_2020_02, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    14. Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2013. "Seeds of distrust: conflict in Uganda," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 217-252, September.
    15. Dirk Bethmann & Michael Kvasnicka, 2013. "World War II, Missing Men and Out of Wedlock Childbearing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(567), pages 162-194, March.
    16. Altındağ, Onur & Bakış, Ozan & Rozo, Sandra V., 2020. "Blessing or burden? Impacts of refugees on businesses and the informal economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    17. Nicola Gennaioli & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2015. "State Capacity and Military Conflict," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1409-1448.
    18. Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 102-127, February.
    19. Christian Dustmann & Francesco Fasani & Tommaso Frattini & Luigi Minale & Uta Schönberg, 2017. "On the economics and politics of refugee migration," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(91), pages 497-550.
    20. Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Marc Schramm, 2004. "The strategic bombing of German cities during World War II and its impact on city growth," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 201-218, April.
    21. Ran Abramitzky & Adeline Delavande & Luis Vasconcelos, 2011. "Marrying Up: The Role of Sex Ratio in Assortative Matching," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 124-157, July.
    22. Kimbrough, Erik O. & Sheremeta, Roman M., 2019. "Theories of conflict and war," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 384-387.
    23. Voth, Hans-Joachim & Adena, Maja & Enikolopov, Ruben & Petrova, Maria, 2020. "Bombs, Broadcasts and Resistance: Allied Intervention and Domestic Opposition to the Nazi Regime during World War II," CEPR Discussion Papers 15292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Pamela Campa & Michel Serafinelli, 2019. "Politico-Economic Regimes and Attitudes: Female Workers under State Socialism," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 233-248, May.
    25. Mounu Prem & Juan Vargas & Miguel E. Purroy, 2021. "Landmines: The Local Effects of Demining," Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC) Working Papers 28, Empirical Studies of Conflict Project.
    26. Fabian Waldinger, 2010. "Quality Matters: The Expulsion of Professors and the Consequences for PhD Student Outcomes in Nazi Germany," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(4), pages 787-831, August.
    27. Morales, Juan S., 2018. "The impact of internal displacement on destination communities: Evidence from the Colombian conflict," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 132-150.
    28. Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Daniel, 2016. "Estimating Neighborhood Effects: Evidence from War-time Destruction in London," Working Papers 2016-6, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    29. Melissa Dell & Pablo Querubin, 2018. "Nation Building Through Foreign Intervention: Evidence from Discontinuities in Military Strategies," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(2), pages 701-764.
    30. Pauline Grosjean, 2014. "Conflict and Social and Political Preferences: Evidence from World War II and Civil Conflict in 35 European Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 56(3), pages 424-451, September.
    31. Daron Acemoglu & David H. Autor & David Lyle, 2004. "Women, War, and Wages: The Effect of Female Labor Supply on the Wage Structure at Midcentury," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(3), pages 497-551, June.
    32. Matthew Adam Kocher & Thomas B. Pepinsky & Stathis N. Kalyvas, 2011. "Aerial Bombing and Counterinsurgency in the Vietnam War," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(2), pages 201-218, April.
    33. Alix-Garcia, Jennifer & Walker, Sarah & Bartlett, Anne & Onder, Harun & Sanghi, Apurva, 2018. "Do refugee camps help or hurt hosts? The case of Kakuma, Kenya," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 66-83.
    34. Leander Heldring & James A. Robinson & Parker J. Whitfill, 2022. "The Second World War, Inequality and the Social Contract in Britain," NBER Working Papers 29677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Alix-Garcia, Jennifer & Schechter, Laura & Valencia Caicedo, Felipe & Jessica Zhu, S., 2022. "Country of Women? Repercussions of the Triple Alliance War in Paraguay," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 131-167.
    36. Nathan Nunn, 2008. "The Long-term Effects of Africa's Slave Trades," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(1), pages 139-176.
    37. Braun, Sebastian & Omar Mahmoud, Toman, 2014. "The Employment Effects of Immigration: Evidence from the Mass Arrival of German Expellees in Postwar Germany," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(1), pages 69-108, March.
    38. Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio & Santos, Rafael J., 2018. "Unexpected guests: The impact of internal displacement inflows on rental prices in Colombian host cities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 289-309.
    39. Baez, Javier E., 2011. "Civil wars beyond their borders: The human capital and health consequences of hosting refugees," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 391-408, November.
    40. Elizabeth Brainerd, 2017. "The Lasting Effect of Sex Ratio Imbalance on Marriage and Family: Evidence from World War II in Russia," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 229-242, May.
    41. Elisabeth Jean Wood, 2006. "Variation in Sexual Violence during War," Politics & Society, , vol. 34(3), pages 307-342, September.
    42. Andreas Steinmayr, 2021. "Contact versus Exposure: Refugee Presence and Voting for the Far Right," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(2), pages 310-327, May.
    43. Nathan Nunn & Leonard Wantchekon, 2011. "The Slave Trade and the Origins of Mistrust in Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3221-3252, December.
    44. Goldin, Claudia D, 1991. "The Role of World War II in the Rise of Women's Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 741-756, September.
    45. Rozenas, Arturas & Zhukov, Yuri M., 2019. "Mass Repression and Political Loyalty: Evidence from Stalin’s ‘Terror by Hunger’," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 113(2), pages 569-583, May.
    46. Noam Lupu & Leonid Peisakhin, 2017. "The Legacy of Political Violence across Generations," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 61(4), pages 836-851, October.
    47. Leander Heldring & James A. Robinson & Parker Whitfill, 2022. "The Second World War, Inequality and the Social Contract in Britain," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(S1), pages 137-159, June.
    48. Paul Collier & V. L. Elliott & Håvard Hegre & Anke Hoeffler & Marta Reynal-Querol & Nicholas Sambanis, 2003. "Breaking the Conflict Trap : Civil War and Development Policy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13938.
    49. Ran Abramitzky & Travis Baseler & Isabelle Sin, 2022. "Persecution and Migrant Self-Selection: Evidence from the Collapse of the Communist Bloc," NBER Working Papers 30204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    50. Debraj Ray & Joan Esteban, 2017. "Conflict and Development," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 263-293, September.
    51. Goldin, Claudia D., 1991. "The Role of World War II in the Rise of Women's Employment," Scholarly Articles 30703972, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Becker, Sascha O. & Ferrara, Andreas, 2019. "Consequences of forced migration: A survey of recent findings," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-16.
    2. Valencia Caicedo, Felipe & Tur-Prats, Ana, 2020. "The Long Shadow of the Spanish Civil War," CEPR Discussion Papers 15091, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Braun, Sebastian & Stuhler, Jan, 2024. "The Economic Consequences of Being Widowed by War: A Life-Cycle Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 19040, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Pham, Tho & Talavera, Oleksandr & Wu, Zhuangchen, 2023. "Labor markets during war time: Evidence from online job advertisements," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1316-1333.
    5. Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig, 2021. "The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro Complementarities," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 111-131, August.
    6. Victor Gay, 2017. "The Legacy of the Missing Men: The Long-Run Impact of World War I on Female Labor Force Participation," 2017 Papers pga905, Job Market Papers.
    7. Christoph Eder, 2022. "Missing Men: Second World War Casualties and Structural Change," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(354), pages 437-460, April.
    8. Jörn Boehnke & Victor Gay, 2022. "The Missing Men: World War I and Female Labor Force Participation," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(4), pages 1209-1241.
    9. Tho Pham & Oleksandr Talavera & Zhuangchen Wu, 2023. "Labor Markets during War Time: Evidence from Online Job Ads," Discussion Papers 23-03, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    10. Abel Brodeur & Lamis Kattan, 2022. "World War II, the Baby Boom, and Employment: County-Level Evidence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(2), pages 437-471.
    11. Boggiano, Bárbara, 2024. "Long-term effects of the Paraguayan War (1864-1870) on intimate partner violence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 177-224.
    12. Kesternich, Iris & Siflinger, Bettina & Smith, James P. & Steckenleiter, Carina, 2020. "Unbalanced sex ratios in Germany caused by World War II and their effect on fertility: A life cycle perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    13. Štěpán Mikula & Tommaso Reggiani & Fabio Sabatini, 2023. "The long-term impact of religion on social capital: lessons from post-war Czechoslovakia," MUNI ECON Working Papers 2023-03, Masaryk University.
    14. Verme, Paolo & Schuettler, Kirsten, 2021. "The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    15. Boehnke, Jörn & Gay, Victor, 2020. "The Missing Men: World War I and Female Labor Force Participation," TSE Working Papers 20-1064, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    16. ASAI, Kentaro & KAMBAYASHI, Ryo, 2023. "The Consequences of Hometown Regiment : What Happened in Hometown When the Soldiers Never Returned?," Discussion Paper Series 743, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    17. Kota Ogasawara & Mizuki Komura, 2022. "Consequences of war: Japan’s demographic transition and the marriage market," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 1037-1069, July.
    18. Juan Felipe Riaño & Felipe Valencia Caicedo, 2024. "Collateral Damage: The Legacy of the Secret War in Laos," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(661), pages 2101-2140.
    19. Betts, Alexander & Flinder Stierna, Maria & Omata, Naohiko & Sterck, Olivier, 2023. "Refugees welcome? Inter-group interaction and host community attitude formation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    20. Anger, Silke & Christoph, Bernhard & Galkiewicz, Agata & Margaryan, Shushanik & Peter, Frauke & Sandner, Malte & Siedler, Thomas, 2024. "War, international spillovers, and adolescents: Evidence from Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 181-193.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    conflict; bombing; political repression; forced migration; gender; sexual violence; Ukraine;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:123566. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.