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Consequences of war: Japan’s demographic transition and the marriage market

Author

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  • Kota Ogasawara

    (Tokyo Institute of Technology)

  • Mizuki Komura

    (Musashi University)

Abstract

This study explores the effects of imbalances in the sex ratio on both the quantity and the quality of children, with a focus on changes in intra-household bargaining power. We first present a theoretical model of intra-household bargaining in the presence of conflicting family goals within a couple, and show that male scarcity (a decrease in the male-to-female sex ratio) induces an increase in the number of children and a decrease in the quality of children. Second, using the impact of World War II on the sex ratio as a quasi-natural experiment, we establish empirically that the decrease in the male-to-female sex ratio in World War II contributed to a smaller decline in fertility and child mortality rates in postwar Japan. In particular, the fertility rate would have fallen by an additional 12% and the child mortality rate by an additional 13% between 1948 and 1970 absent the decrease in the sex ratio.

Suggested Citation

  • Kota Ogasawara & Mizuki Komura, 2022. "Consequences of war: Japan’s demographic transition and the marriage market," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 1037-1069, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:35:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s00148-021-00826-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-021-00826-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Tatsuki Inoue amd Erika Igarashi, 2023. "The far-reaching effects of bombing on fertility in mid-20th century Japan," Papers 2306.05770, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    2. Kota Ogasawara & Erika Igarashi, 2021. "The Impacts of the Gender Imbalance on the Marriage Market: Evidence from World War II in Japan," Papers 2102.00687, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    3. Ryo Takahashi, 2022. "Gender differences in tolerance for women's opinions and the role of social norms," Working Papers 2123, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Quantity-quality trade-off of children; Bargaining power; Marriage market; Sex ratio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East
    • N35 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Asia including Middle East

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