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Collateral Damage: The Legacy of the Secret War in Laos

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  • Juan Felipe Riaño
  • Felipe Valencia Caicedo

Abstract

We investigate the long-term impact of conflict on economic development, focusing on the US ‘Secret War’ in Laos (1964–73). Our study employs multiple empirical strategies and data on bombing campaigns, satellite imagery, and development indicators to demonstrate that regions heavily bombed during this period experienced lower economic development almost fifty years after the conflict officially ended. A one-standard-deviation increase in bombing intensity is associated with a 7.1% decrease in GDP per capita. We demonstrate the persistent effects of bombing campaigns on human capital accumulation, structural transformation and migration patterns, stressing the role of unexploded ordnance contamination as the primary mechanism of transmission of these effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Felipe Riaño & Felipe Valencia Caicedo, 2024. "Collateral Damage: The Legacy of the Secret War in Laos," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(661), pages 2101-2140.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:134:y:2024:i:661:p:2101-2140.
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    2. Nicolás de Roux & Luis Martínez, 2021. "Inversión Perdida: Conflicto Civil y Crédito Agrícola en Colombia," Documentos CEDE 19622, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    3. Perilla, Sergio & Prem, Mounu & Purroy, Miguel E. & Vargas, Juan F., 2024. "How peace saves lives: Evidence from Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    4. Wim Naudé & Lelys Ernesto Amorós & Tilman Brück, 2023. "State-Based Conflict and Entrepreneurship – Empirical Evidence," HiCN Working Papers 384, Households in Conflict Network.
    5. Nicolás de Roux & Luis Roberto Martínez, 2021. "Forgone Investment: Civil Conflict and Agricultural Credit in Colombia," Documentos CEDE 19236, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    6. Jun Ma & Jinliang Wang & Jianpeng Zhang & Suling He & Lanfang Liu & Xuzheng Zhong, 2024. "The Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Services Value in Laos between 2000 and 2020," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-19, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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