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World War II, Missing Men, and Out-of-wedlock Childbearing

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Kvasnicka

    (Department of Economics, Humboldt University)

  • Dirk Bethmann

    (Department of Economics, Korea University)

Abstract

Based on county-level census data for the German state of Bavaria in 1939 and 1946, we use World War II as a natural experiment to study the effects of sex ratio changes on out-of-wedlock fertility. Our findings show that war-induced shortfalls of men to women significantly increased the nonmarital fertility ratio at mid century, a result that proves robust to the use of alternative sex ratio definitions, post-war measures of fertility, and estimation samples. The magnitude of this increase furthermore appears to depend on the future marriage market prospects that women at the time could expect to face in the not-too-distant future. We find the positive effect on the nonmarital fertility ratio of a decline in the sex ratio to be strongly attenuated by the magnitude of county-level shares of prisoners of war. Unlike military casualties and soldiers missing in action, prisoners of war had a sizeable positive probability of returning home from the war. Both current marriage market conditions, therefore, and foreseeable improvements in the future marriage market prospects of women appear to have influenced fertility behavior in the immediate aftermath of World War II.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Kvasnicka & Dirk Bethmann, 2007. "World War II, Missing Men, and Out-of-wedlock Childbearing," Discussion Paper Series 0730, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    • Handle: RePEc:iek:wpaper:0730
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    File URL: http://econ.korea.ac.kr/~ri/WorkingPapers/w0730.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bethmann, Dirk & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2007. "Uncertain paternity, mating market failure, and the institution of marriage," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2007-013, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & David H. Autor & David Lyle, 2004. "Women, War, and Wages: The Effect of Female Labor Supply on the Wage Structure at Midcentury," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(3), pages 497-551, June.
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    5. George A. Akerlof & Janet L. Yellen & Michael L. Katz, 1996. "An Analysis of Out-of-Wedlock Childbearing in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(2), pages 277-317.
    6. Pierre-Andre Chiappori & Bernard Fortin & Guy Lacroix, 2002. "Marriage Market, Divorce Legislation, and Household Labor Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 37-72, February.
    7. Anonymous, 1950. "Allied High Commission for Germany," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 535-538, August.
    8. Weiss, Yoram & Willis, Robert J, 1985. "Children as Collective Goods and Divorce Settlements," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(3), pages 268-292, July.
    9. Bethmann, Dirk & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2007. "Uncertain paternity, mating market failure, and the institution of marriage," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2007-013, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    10. Robert J. Willis, 1999. "A Theory of Out-of-Wedlock Childbearing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(S6), pages 33-64, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    World War II; Sex Ratios; Out-Of-Wedlock Births;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-

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