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Carbon default swap – disentangling the exposure to carbon risk through CDS

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  • Blasberg, Alexander
  • Kiesel, Rüdiger
  • Taschini, Luca

Abstract

Using Credit Default Swap spreads, we construct a forward-looking, market-implied carbon risk factor and show that carbon risk affects firms’ credit spread. The effect is larger for European than North American firms and varies substantially across industries, suggesting the market recognizes where and which sectors are better positioned for a transition to a low-carbon economy. Moreover, lenders demand more credit protection for those borrowers perceived to be more exposed to carbon risk when market-wide concern about climate change risk is elevated. Lenders expect that adjustments in carbon regulations in Europe will cause relatively larger policy-related costs in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Blasberg, Alexander & Kiesel, Rüdiger & Taschini, Luca, 2023. "Carbon default swap – disentangling the exposure to carbon risk through CDS," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118096, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:118096
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    Cited by:

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    2. Livieri, Giulia & Radi, Davide & Smaniotto, Elia, 2024. "Pricing transition risk with a jump-diffusion credit risk model: evidences from the CDS market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123650, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; carbon risk; credit risk; credit default; swap spreads;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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