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Determinants and price discovery of China sovereign credit default swaps

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  • Eyssell, Thomas
  • Fung, Hung-Gay
  • Zhang, Gaiyan

Abstract

We study the determinants of levels and changes of sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads in China from January 2001 to December 2010. Both country-specific factors (such as the China stock market index and the real interest rate) and global factors (the U.S. S&P 500 stock option volatilities and default spreads, and the non-North America global stock market factor) have significant explanatory power on CDS spreads in terms of both levels and changes. China's domestic economic factors were more relevant in explaining the CDS spread levels and changes in the earlier years, while the impact of global factors has become increasingly important in recent years, particularly during the global crisis. Within a vector autoregressive (VAR) model controlling for exogenous variables, we find that China sovereign CDS spread changes lead stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Eyssell, Thomas & Fung, Hung-Gay & Zhang, Gaiyan, 2013. "Determinants and price discovery of China sovereign credit default swaps," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-15.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:24:y:2013:i:c:p:1-15
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2012.09.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Mikhail Stolbov, 2017. "Determinants of sovereign credit risk: the case of Russia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 51-70, January.
    2. Haddou, Samira, 2024. "Determinants of CDS in core and peripheral European countries: A comparative study during crisis and calm periods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Rodrigo Alfaro Alfaro & Carlos A. Medel & Carola Moreno, 2017. "An Analysis of the Impact of External Financial Risks on the Sovereign Risk Premium of Latin American Economies," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 32(2), pages 131-153, October.
    4. Chuffart, Thomas & Hooper, Emma, 2019. "An investigation of oil prices impact on sovereign credit default swaps in Russia and Venezuela," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 904-916.
    5. Andrea Consiglio & Michele Tumminello & Stavros A. Zenios, 2018. "Pricing Sovereign Contingent Convertible Debt," Journal of Enterprising Culture (JEC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(08), pages 1-36, December.
    6. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    7. Stolbov, Mikhail, 2014. "The causal linkages between sovereign CDS prices for the BRICS and major European economies," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-43.
    8. Naifar, Nader & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2022. "Tail event-based sovereign credit risk transmission network during COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    9. Murat EREN, & Selim BAÅžAR, 2016. "Effects Of Credit Default Swaps (Cds) On Bist-100 Index," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 5(Special I), pages 1-27, august.
    10. Boonlert Jitmaneeroj & John Ogwang, 2016. "An Empirical Analysis of Sovereign Credit Risk Co-movement between Japan and ASEAN Countries," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 8(4), pages 6-16.
    11. Falik shear & Hilal Anwar Butt & Imtiaz Badshah, 2017. "An analysis of the relationship between the sovereign credit default swaps and the stock market of Pakistan through handling outliers," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 4807486, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    12. Nader Naifar & Shumokh Aljarba, 2023. "Does Geopolitical Risk Matter for Sovereign Credit Risk? Fresh Evidence from Nonlinear Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-17, February.
    13. Zhang, Wenlong & Zhang, Gaiyan & Helwege, Jean, 2022. "Cross country linkages and transmission of sovereign risk: Evidence from China’s credit default swaps," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    14. Carlos Casanova & Alvaro Ortiz & Tomasa Rodrigo & Le Xia & Joaquín Iglesias, 2017. "Tracking chinese vulnerability in real time using Big Data," Working Papers 17/13, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    15. Cumhur ÞAHÝN & Hüseyin ALTAY, 2016. "Examination of the Relationship between Turkey’s Credit Default Swap (CDS) Points and Unemployment," Eurasian Business & Economics Journal, Eurasian Academy Of Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 52-67, January.
    16. Yanying Zhang & Yiuman Tse & Gaiyan Zhang, 2022. "Return predictability between industries and the stock market in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 194-220, May.
    17. Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert, 2018. "Is Thailand’s credit default swap market linked to bond and stock markets? Evidence from the term structure of credit spreads," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 324-341.
    18. Deng, Chao & Su, Xiaojian & Wang, Gangjin & Peng, Cheng, 2022. "The existence of flight-to-quality under extreme conditions: Evidence from a nonlinear perspective in Chinese stocks and bonds' sectors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    19. Apergis, Nicholas & Danuletiu, Dan & Xu, Bing, 2022. "CDS spreads and COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    20. Sinan Esen & Feyyaz Zeren & Halil Şimdi, 2015. "CDS and Stock Market: Panel Evidence Under Cross-Section Dependency," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 13(1), pages 31-46.
    21. Wu, Dexiang & Cheng, Huihui & Luo, Cuicui & Han, Liyan, 2022. "Does government initiated corporate social responsibility lower the default risk? Evidence from the targeted poverty alleviation campaign in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    22. Nader Naifar, 2020. "What Explains the Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads Changes in the GCC Region?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-22, October.
    23. Sabkha, Saker & de Peretti, Christian & Hmaied, Dorra, 2019. "Nonlinearities in the oil effects on the sovereign credit risk: A self-exciting threshold autoregression approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-133.
    24. Taurai Muvunza & Yong Jiang, 2023. "Determinants and hedging effectiveness of China's sovereign credit default swaps," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 2074-2087, April.
    25. Miroslav Mateev & Elena Marinova, 2019. "Relation between Credit Default Swap Spreads and Stock Prices: A Non-linear Perspective," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(1), pages 1-26, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China sovereign credit default swaps; Determinants of levels and changes; Lead–lag relationship;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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