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Directional and bidirectional causality between U.S. industry credit and stock markets and their determinants

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  • Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain
  • Nor, Safwan Mohd
  • Hammoudeh, Shawkat
  • Shahbaz, Muhammad

Abstract

We examine the causal links between U.S. industry-wise credits and stock markets. The full sample bootstrap Granger causality results show that all stock markets Granger cause their CDS counterparts and there is also bidirectional causality for the banking, healthcare and material industries. The short-run parametric stability tests highlight that the full sample parameters are not stable and hence less reliable. The bootstrap rolling window estimations confirm the inconsistency in the CDS-stock causality relationships where bidirectional causalities are also found between the credit and stock markets that vary over different sub-samples. Finally, we analyze the impact of different financial and macroeconomic determinants on the CDS-stock causality through a probit model. Overall, the business conditions, stock market volatility, default premiums, Treasury bond rate and the slope of the yield curve are major drivers of the CDS-stock nexus. Our findings provide possible explanations for varying and mixed previous empirical findings in the existing literature, and hence have useful investment implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Nor, Safwan Mohd & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "Directional and bidirectional causality between U.S. industry credit and stock markets and their determinants," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 46-61.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:47:y:2017:i:c:p:46-61
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2016.10.005
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    4. Jiang, Yong & Wang, Gang-Jin & Ma, Chaoqun & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2021. "Do credit conditions matter for the impact of oil price shocks on stock returns? Evidence from a structural threshold VAR model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-15.
    5. Mohamed Sahbi Nakhli & Abderrazak Dhaoui & Julien Chevallier, 2022. "Bootstrap rolling-window Granger causality dynamics between momentum and sentiment: implications for investors," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 267-283, June.
    6. Mohd Irfan & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2022. "Low-carbon energy strategies and financial development in developing economies: investigating long-run influence of credit and equity market development," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 1-26, April.
    7. Laura Ballester & Ana González-Urteaga, 2020. "Is There a Connection between Sovereign CDS Spreads and the Stock Market? Evidence for European and US Returns and Volatilities," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-34, September.
    8. Guesmi, Khaled & Dhaoui, Abderrazak & Goutte, Stéphane & Abid, Ilyes, 2018. "On the determinants of industry-CDS index spreads: Evidence from a nonlinear setting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 233-254.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit default swap; Stock; Bootstrap rolling windows; Granger non-causality; Probit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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