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How Can Commodity Exporters Make Fiscal and Monetary Policy Less Procyclical?

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  • Frankel, Jeffrey A.

    (Harvard University)

Abstract

Fiscal and monetary policy each has a role to play in mitigating the volatility that stems from the large trade shocks hitting commodity-exporting countries. All too often macroeconomic policy is procyclical, that is, destabilizing, rather than countercyclical. This paper suggests two institutional innovations designed to achieve greater countercyclicality, one for fiscal policy and one for monetary policy. The proposal for fiscal policy is to emulate Chile's structural budget rule, and particularly its avoidance of over-optimism in forecasting. The proposal for monetary policy is called Product Price Targeting (PPT), an alternative to CPI-targeting that is designed to be more robust with respect to terms of trade shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "How Can Commodity Exporters Make Fiscal and Monetary Policy Less Procyclical?," Working Paper Series rwp11-015, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp11-015
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    2. Hatzenbuehler, Patrick L. & Mavrotas, George, 2017. "Macroeconomic Factor Influence on Agricultural Program Sustainability in Kaduna State, Nigeria," Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy Research Papers 265415, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security (FSP).
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    4. Monoj Kumar Majumder & Mala Raghavan & Joaquin Vespignani, 2022. "The impact of commodity price volatility on fiscal balance and the role of real interest rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1375-1402, September.
    5. Stuart Landon & Constance Smith, 2015. "Rule-Based Resource Revenue Stabilization Funds: A Welfare Comparison," The Energy Journal, , vol. 36(2), pages 117-144, April.
    6. Luis N. Lanteri, 2015. "Efectos de la enfermedad holandesa ('Dutch disease'). Alguna evidencia para Argentina," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, vol. 18(2), pages 187-209, December.
    7. Drechsel, Thomas & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2018. "Commodity booms and busts in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 200-218.
    8. Anthony J. Venables, 2016. "Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has It Proven So Difficult?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 161-184, Winter.
    9. Ojeda-Joya, Jair N. & Parra-Polanía, Julián A. & Vargas, Carmiña O., 2016. "Fiscal rules as a response to commodity shocks: A welfare analysis of the Colombian scenario," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 859-866.
    10. Chuku Chuku & Paul Middleditch, 2020. "Characterizing Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules and Interactions when Commodity Prices Matter," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(3), pages 373-404, June.
    11. Ramos Francia Manuel & Cuadra Gabriel & Capistrán Carlos, 2011. "Policy Response to External Shocks: Lessons from the Crisis," Working Papers 2011-14, Banco de México.
    12. Monoj Kumar Majumder & Mala Raghavan & Joaquin Vespignani, 2020. "Commodity price volatility, fiscal balance and real interest rate," CAMA Working Papers 2020-79, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Luis N. Lanteri, 2016. "La política fiscal en economías exportadoras de materias primas. Evidencia para Argentina," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 1, pages 1-1, June.
    14. Frederick van der Ploeg & Anthony J. Venables, 2012. "Natural Resource Wealth: The Challenge of Managing a Windfall," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 315-337, July.
    15. Costa Junior, Celso J. & Garcia-Cintado, Alejandro C., 2021. "Rent-seeking in an emerging market: A DSGE approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
    16. Kyle, Steven C., 2014. "Mineral Revenues and Countercyclical Macroeconomic Policy in Kazakhstan," Working Papers 180170, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    17. Troug, Haytem, 2020. "The heterogeneity among commodity-rich economies: Beyond the prices of commodities," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
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    19. Banegas Rivero, Roger Alejandro & Vergara González, Reyna, 2019. "Evaluación de escenarios fiscales para Bolivia," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 32, pages 132-168, November.
    20. Eman Elish, 2019. "The Determinants of Optimal Exchange Rate Regimes in High and Low Oil-Producing Countries," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 15(2), pages 97-120, December.
    21. Kaznacheev, Peter, 2013. "Resource Rents and Economic Growth: Economic and institutional development in countries with a high share of income from the sale of natural resources. Analysis and recommendations based on internatio," EconStor Research Reports 121950, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    22. Mohsen Mohammadi Khyareh & Vahid Taghinejad Omran & Mohammad Ali Ehsani, 2015. "Evaluating The Welfare Aspects Of The Simple Monetary Rules For Iran," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 60(206), pages 141-166, July - Se.

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