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Fiscal and monetary policy in a commodity‐based economy1

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  • Jeffrey Frankel
  • Ben Smit
  • Federico Sturzenegger

Abstract

A rough description of macroeconomic policy in South Africa would be that monetary policy concentrates on building nominal credibility through focusing on inflation, while the brunt of the responsibility for output stabilization rests on fiscal policy. This aricle discusses the convenience of such a policy mix. First, we estimate the business cycle impact of fiscal and monetary policy to find that so far fiscal policy has been mostly pro‐cyclical, whereas monetary policy has been, over the last couple of years, mildly counter‐cyclical. We argue that fiscal policy should be made significantly more counter‐cyclical than it has been – a strategy that would deliver more macroeconomic stability and potentially higher growth. Furthermore, we believe the Central Bank has earned the credibility to operate macro policy with a more decisive output stabilization objective, and we discuss several reinterpretations of the inflation targeting regime that provide the flexibility to do so without risking the strong anti‐inflationary credibility of the SARB. On exchange rate policy we recommend that the authorities take a pragmatic approach to floating, mostly allowing the currency to move freely, but intervening to avoid overvaluation. We explain why and discuss how this objective could be achieved.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey Frankel & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2008. "Fiscal and monetary policy in a commodity‐based economy1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(4), pages 679-713, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:16:y:2008:i:4:p:679-713
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0351.2008.00339.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Pranjul Bhandari & Jeffrey Frankel, 2014. "The Best of Rules and Discretion: A Case for Nominal GDP Targeting in India," CID Working Papers 284, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    2. Mironov, Valeriy, 2015. "Russian devaluation in 2014–2015: Falling into the abyss or a window of opportunity?," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 217-239.
    3. Tumisang Loate & Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Nicola Viegi, 2021. "Sailing into the Wind evaluating the near future of Monetary Policy in South Africa," Working Papers 11006, South African Reserve Bank.
    4. Jeffrey Frankel, 2014. "Nominal GDP Targeting for Middle-Income Countries," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 14(3), pages 1-14.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2009. "Bonanzas de flujos de capital: una mirada que abarca el pasado y el presente," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 27(59), pages 188-250, June.
    6. Ye, Wuyi & Guo, Ranran & Deschamps, Bruno & Jiang, Ying & Liu, Xiaoquan, 2021. "Macroeconomic forecasts and commodity futures volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 981-994.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "How Can Commodity Exporters Make Fiscal and Monetary Policy Less Procyclical?," Scholarly Articles 4735392, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    8. Ruthira Naraidoo & Vo Phuong Mai Le, 2019. "Monetary policy in a model with commodity and financial market," Working Papers 782, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    9. Irene Yackovlev & Victor Duarte Lledo & Lucie Gadenne, 2009. "Cyclical Patterns of Government Expenditures in Sub-Saharan Africa: Facts and Factors," IMF Working Papers 2009/274, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Jingyang Wu & Xinyi Zhang & Fangyixuan Huang & Haochen Zhou & Rohtiash Chandra, 2024. "Review of deep learning models for crypto price prediction: implementation and evaluation," Papers 2405.11431, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    11. Federico Sturzenegger, 2019. "Macri´s Macro: The meandering road to stability and growth," Working Papers 135, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Oct 2019.
    12. Bhandari, Pranjul & Frankel, Jeffrey, 2017. "Nominal GDP targeting for developing countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 491-506.

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