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Optimal economic policy and oil prices shocks in Russia

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Abstract

The goal of the paper is to explain and analyze whether Central Bank of Russia should include commodity prices into the lists of variables they try to respond. We augmented New Keynesian DSGE small open economy model of Dib (2008) with the oil stabilization fund and new Taylortype monetary policy rule and estimated the model using Bayesian econometrics. The results show that Central Bank’s mild response to the oil price changes may be desired in terms of minimizing fluctuations of inflation and output only in the case when stabilization fund would be absent, while this response is redundant when “excess” oil revenues can be saved in the fund.

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  • Semko Roman, 2013. "Optimal economic policy and oil prices shocks in Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 13/03e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    • Handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:13/03e
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    1. Oxana Malakhovskaya & Alexey Minabutdinov, 2014. "Are commodity price shocks important? A Bayesian estimation of a DSGE model for Russia," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1/2), pages 148-180.
    2. Andrei G. Shulgin, 2018. "Monetary Regime Choice and Optimal Credit Rationing at the Official Rate: The Case of Russia," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 631-668, October.
    3. Vahagn Davtyan & Haykaz Igityan, 2021. "Structural Reforms in DSGE Model," Working Papers 17, Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia.
    4. Andrej Drygalla, 2023. "Monetary policy in an oil-dependent economy in the presence of multiple shocks," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(1), pages 185-214, February.
    5. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    6. Yijo Syaharuddin & Purwadi Purwadi & Alexander Sampeliling, 2021. "Attention of Economic Growth and Oil Prices: Evidence from Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 425-433.
    7. Irina Khvostova & Alexander Larin & Anna Novak, 2016. "Euler Equation with Habits and Measurement Errors: Estimates on Russian Micro Data," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 63(4), pages 395-409.
    8. Shulgin, Andrei, 2014. "How much monetary policy rules do we need to estimate DSGE model for Russia?," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 36(4), pages 3-31.
    9. Shulgin, A., 2015. "Optimization of Simple Monetary Policy Rules on the Base of Estimated DSGE-model," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 64-98.
    10. Shulgin, A., 2017. "Two-Dimensional Monetary Policy Shocks in DSGE-Model Estimated for Russia," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 75-115.
    11. Ekaterina Pyltsyna, 2018. "The Change Of Fiscal Multiplier When Switching From Managed Exchange Rate Regime To Thefloating One," HSE Working papers WP BRP 206/EC/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    12. Рубинштейн Александр Яковлевич, "undated". "Рациональность & Иррациональность: Эволюция Смыслов [Rationality & Irrationality: Evolution of the Senses]," Working papers a:pru175:ye:2017:1, Institute of Economics.
    13. Irina Khvostova & Alexander Larin & Anna Novak, 2016. "The Euler Equation with Habits and Measurement Errors: Estimates on Russian Micro Data," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 63(4), pages 395-409, September.
    14. Marinko Škare & Saša Stjepanovic, 2014. "Income Distribution Determinants and Inequality – International Comparison," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(37), pages 980-980, August.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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