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International Commodity Price Shocks, Democracy, and External Debt

Author

Listed:
  • Markus Bruckner
  • Mr. Rabah Arezki

Abstract

We examine the effects that international commodity price shocks have on external debt using panel data for a world sample of 93 countries spanning the period 1970-2007. Our main finding is that positive commodity price shocks lead to a significant reduction in the level of external debt in democracies, but to no significant reduction in the level of external debt in autocracies. To explain this result, we show that positive commodity price shocks lead to a statistically significant and quantitatively large increase in total government expenditures in autocracies. In democracies on the other hand government expenditures did not increase significantly. We also document that following positive windfalls from international commodity price shocks the risk of default on external debt decreased in democracies, but increased significantly in autocracies.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Bruckner & Mr. Rabah Arezki, 2010. "International Commodity Price Shocks, Democracy, and External Debt," IMF Working Papers 2010/053, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/053
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Arezki, Rabah & Ismail, Kareem, 2013. "Boom–bust cycle, asymmetrical fiscal response and the Dutch disease," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 256-267.
    2. Al Jabri, Salwa & Raghavan, Mala & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2022. "Oil prices and fiscal policy in an oil-exporter country: Empirical evidence from Oman," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    3. Jeffrey Frankel, 2013. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 9, pages 323-391, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Luis N. Lanteri, 2016. "La política fiscal en economías exportadoras de materias primas. Evidencia para Argentina," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 1, pages 1-1, June.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2010. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey," Scholarly Articles 4454156, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    6. Mr. Paulo Drummond & Mr. Wendell Daal & Mr. Nandini Srivastava & Mr. Luiz E Oliveira, 2012. "Mobilizing Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa: Empirical Norms and Key Determinants," IMF Working Papers 2012/108, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Jeffrey Frankel, 2012. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions," Growth Lab Working Papers 36, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    8. Rigoberto Ariel Yépez-Garcia & Julie Dana, 2012. "Mitigating Vulnerability to High and Volatile Oil Prices : Power Sector Experience in Latin America and the Caribbean," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 9341.
    9. Pierre-Emmanuel Darpeix, 2019. "Literature review on the consequences of food price spikes and price volatility," Working Papers hal-02072329, HAL.
    10. Zhang, Zhengyong & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "Tail risk transmission from commodity prices to sovereign risk of emerging economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "How Can Commodity Exporters Make Fiscal and Monetary Policy Less Procyclical?," Scholarly Articles 4735392, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    12. Mohn, Klaus, 2016. "Resource revenue management and wealth neutrality in Norway," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 446-457.
    13. Céspedes, Luis Felipe & Velasco, Andrés, 2014. "Was this time different?: Fiscal policy in commodity republics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 92-106.
    14. Benjamin Jones, 2020. "Revenue forecasting in the mining industries: A data-driven approach," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-22, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2011. "A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Working Paper Series 11-012, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    16. Boonman, Tjeerd M., 2013. "Sovereign defaults, business cycles and economic growth in Latin America, 1870-2012," Research Report 13010-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).

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