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Current account reversals in industrial countries: does the exchange rate regime matter?

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  • Pancaro, Cosimo

Abstract

This paper studies current account reversals in industrial countries across different exchange rate regimes. There are two major findings which have important implications for industrial economies with external imbalances: first, triggers of current account reversals differ between exchange rate regimes. While the current account deficit and the output gap are significant predictors of reversals across all regimes, reserve coverage, credit booms, openness to trade and the US short term interest rate determine the likelihood of reversals only under more rigid regimes. Conversely, the real exchange rate affects the probability of experiencing a reversal only under flexible arrangements. Second, current account reversals in advanced economies do not have an independent effect on growth. This result holds not only for industrial economies in general but also for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes in particular. JEL Classification: F32, F41

Suggested Citation

  • Pancaro, Cosimo, 2013. "Current account reversals in industrial countries: does the exchange rate regime matter?," Working Paper Series 1547, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131547
    Note: 1934813
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    Cited by:

    1. Gnimassoun, Blaise, 2015. "The importance of the exchange rate regime in limiting current account imbalances in sub-Saharan African countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 36-74.
    2. Blaise Gnimasoun & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Current-account adjustments and exchange-rate misalignments," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-31, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    3. Olivier Habimana, 2017. "Do flexible exchange rates facilitate external adjustment? A dynamic approach with time-varying and asymmetric volatility," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 625-642, October.
    4. Kersti Harkmann & Karsten Staehr, 2019. "Current account dynamics and exchange rate regimes in Central and Eastern Europe," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2018-08, Bank of Estonia, revised 23 Jan 2019.
    5. Gnimassoun, Blaise & Coulibaly, Issiaka, 2014. "Current account sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the exchange rate regime matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 208-226.
    6. Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon, 2015. "Persistence of Current-account Disequilibria and Real Exchange-rate Misalignments," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 137-159, February.
    7. Jiří Pour, 2020. "Context of external economic imbalances adjustments and long-term economic growth [Analýza souvislostí strukturální nápravy vnější ekonomické nerovnováhy a dlouhodobého ekonomického růstu]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2020(1), pages 5-26.
    8. Xiaoyi Mu & Haichun Ye, 2013. "Current Account Adjustment In Developing Countries: The Role Of Exchange Rate Regimes," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(2), pages 1566-1581, April.
    9. Santiago Rossi & Fernando Toledo, 2022. "Estimation and prediction of current account deficit adjustment dynamics," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(80), pages 100-139, November.
    10. Adnan Velic, 2024. "Current Account Imbalances, Real Exchange Rates, and Nominal Exchange Rate Variability," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 497-545, July.
    11. Zoran Grubišiæ & Sandra Kamenkoviæ & Aleksandar Zdravkoviæ, 2018. "Impact of government balance and exchange rate regime on current account during the economic cycle: evidence from CEE countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(1), pages 309-336.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    current account; exchange rate regime; reversals;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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