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Patterns of Current Account Adjustment – Insights from Past Experience

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  • Bernardina Algieri
  • Thierry Bracke

Abstract

The paper examines episodes of current account adjustment in individual economies. A central finding is that these episodes are very divergent and can be usefully classified, on the basis of cluster analysis, in three groups. A majority of cases is characterised by internal adjustment, exhibiting slowing domestic demand growth. In some cases, the adjustment was mainly external, facilitated by an exchange rate depreciation but without economic slowdown. Finally, some cases involved a crisis-like combination of a severe slowdown and a significant currency depreciation. Using a multinomial logit, we find that this classification of episodes helps improve the predictability of current account adjustment.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernardina Algieri & Thierry Bracke, 2007. "Patterns of Current Account Adjustment – Insights from Past Experience," CESifo Working Paper Series 2029, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2029
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kappler, Marcus & Reisen, Helmut & Schularick, Moritz & Turkisch, Edouard, 2013. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 24(3), pages 471-494.
    3. Gnimassoun, Blaise & Mignon, Valérie, 2016. "How Do Macroeconomic Imbalances Interact? Evidence From A Panel Var Analysis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(7), pages 1717-1741, October.
    4. Jean-Baptiste Gossé & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2011. "The impact of external shocks on the eurozone: a structural VAR model," Working Papers hal-00610024, HAL.
    5. Raza, Hamid & Zoega, Gylfi & Kinsella, Stephen, 2018. "Capital inflows, crisis and recovery in small open economies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 273-282.
    6. Lucas Papademos, 2007. "The Effects of Globalization on Inflation, Liquidity and Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 593-608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Cosimo Pancaro & Christian Saborowski, 2016. "Current Account Reversals in Industrial Countries: does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 107-130, April.
    8. Jean-Baptiste Gossé & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2010. "L'impact des chocs externes sur et dans la zone euro : un modèle VAR structurel," CEPN Working Papers hal-00493384, HAL.
    9. Gervais, Olivier & Schembri, Lawrence & Suchanek, Lena, 2016. "Current account dynamics, real exchange rate adjustment, and the exchange rate regime in emerging-market economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 86-99.
    10. Antonis Adam & Panos Hatzipanayotou & Thomas Moutos, 2015. "Labour Market Regulation, Fiscal Consolidation, and the Success of Current Account Adjustments," DEOS Working Papers 1517, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    11. Ben Smit & Christelle Grobler & Carmen Nel, 2014. "Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals: Potential Macroeconomic Consequences for South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(4), pages 616-627, December.
    12. Ehmer, Philipp, 2014. "The impact of diverging economic structure on current account imbalances in the euro area," Wittener Diskussionspapiere zu alten und neuen Fragen der Wirtschaftswissenschaft 27/2014, Witten/Herdecke University, Faculty of Management and Economics.
    13. repec:hal:cepnwp:hal-00610024 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Bernardina Algieri & Thierry Bracke, 2011. "Patterns of Current Account Adjustment—Insights from Past Experience," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 401-425, July.
    15. Sergio V. Barone & Ricardo Descalzi & Alberto M. Díaz Cafferata, 2012. "Trade variables and Current Account “reversals”: Does the choice of definition matter? An application to Latin American countries," Revista de Economía y Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, vol. 50(1), pages 123-141, Diciembre.
    16. Theofilakou, Nancy & Stournaras, Yannis, 2012. "Current account adjustments in OECD countries revisited: The role of the fiscal stance," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 719-734.
    17. Thierry Bracke & Matthieu Bussière & Michael Fidora & Roland Straub, 2010. "A Framework for Assessing Global Imbalances," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9), pages 1140-1174, September.
    18. Olivier Gervais & Lawrence L. Schembri & Lena Suchanek, 2011. "External Stability, Real Exchange Rate Adjustment and the Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging-Market Economies," Discussion Papers 11-5, Bank of Canada.
    19. Santiago Rossi & Fernando Toledo, 2022. "Estimation and prediction of current account deficit adjustment dynamics," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(80), pages 100-139, November.
    20. Oguzhan Ozcelebi & Nurtac Yildirim, 2017. "Interrelations Between External and Internal Macroeconomic Factors: Empirical Evidence on Some OECD Countries," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 15(2), pages 147-174.
    21. Yabin Wang, 2017. "How Do Emerging Markets Respond to Macroeconomic Shocks? - Dynamic Panel Evidence on the Effects of Disasters," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 731-760, September.
    22. Hickey, Ronan, 2007. "How Sustainable are Global Imbalances?," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 85-119, October.
    23. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6913 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    external imbalances; current account adjustment; cluster analysis; multinomial logit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

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