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The macroeconomic effects of large exchange rate appreciations

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  • Kappler, Marcus
  • Reisen, Helmut
  • Schularick, Moritz
  • Turkisch, Edouard

Abstract

In this paper we study the macroeconomic effects of large exchange rate appreciations. Using a sample of 128 countries from 1960-2008, we identify large nominal and real appreciations shocks and study their macroeconomic effects in a dummy-augmented panel autoregressive model. Our results show that an exchange rate appreciation can have strong effects on current account balances. Within three years after the appreciation event, the current account balance on average deteriorates by three percentage points of GDP. This effect occurs through a reduction of savings without a meaningful reduction in investment. Real export growth slows down substantially, while imports remain by and large unaffected. The output costs of appreciation are small and not statistically significant, indicating a shift towards domestic sources of growth. All these effects appear somewhat more pronounced in developing countries.

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  • Kappler, Marcus & Reisen, Helmut & Schularick, Moritz & Turkisch, Edouard, 2011. "The macroeconomic effects of large exchange rate appreciations," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-016, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:11016
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current account adjustment; global imbalances; exchange rate changes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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