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Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term?

Author

Listed:
  • Benoît Chèze
  • Julien Chevallier
  • Pascal Gastineau

Abstract

This article investigates whether anticipated technological progress can be expected to be strong enough to offset carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions resulting from the rapid growth of air transport. Aviation CO2 emissions projections are provided at the worldwide level and for eight geographical zones until 2025. Total air traffic flows are first forecast using a dynamic panel-data econometric model, and then converted into corresponding quantities of air traffic CO2 emissions using specific hypotheses and energy factors. None of our nine scenarios appears compatible with the objective of 450 ppm CO2-eq. (a.k.a. "scenario of type I") recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). None is either compatible with the IPCC scenario of type III, which aims at limiting global warming to 3.2°C.

Suggested Citation

  • Benoît Chèze & Julien Chevallier & Pascal Gastineau, 2012. "Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term?," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-35, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    • Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2012-35
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    1. repec:cii:cepiei:2011-q2-3-126-127-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Macintosh, Andrew & Wallace, Lailey, 2009. "International aviation emissions to 2025: Can emissions be stabilised without restricting demand?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 264-273, January.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Wang, Zhaohua & Liu, Wei, 2015. "Determinants of CO2 emissions from household daily travel in Beijing, China: Individual travel characteristic perspectives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 292-299.
    3. Albert Banal-Estañol & Jeremy Eckhause & Olivier Massol, 2015. "Incentives for early adoption of carbon capture technology: further considerations from a European perspective," Working Papers hal-02475485, HAL.
    4. Anthony Paris, 2016. "The Effect of Biofuels on the Link between Oil and Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Smooth Transition Cointegration Approach," Working Papers hal-02475518, HAL.
    5. Alonso, G. & Benito, A. & Lonza, L. & Kousoulidou, M., 2014. "Investigations on the distribution of air transport traffic and CO2 emissions within the European Union," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 85-93.
    6. Vincent Brémond & Emmanuel Hache & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2015. "On the link between oil price and exchange rate : A time-varying VAR parameter approach," Working Papers hal-03206684, HAL.
    7. González, Rodrigo & Hosoda, Eiji B., 2016. "Environmental impact of aircraft emissions and aviation fuel tax in Japan," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 234-240.
    8. Wajahat Ali & Azrai Abdullah & Muhammad Azam, 2016. "The Dynamic Linkage between Technological Innovation and carbon dioxide emissions in Malaysia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lagged Bound Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 389-400.
    9. Gössling, Stefan & Cohen, Scott Allen & Hares, Andrew, 2016. "Inside the black box: EU policy officers' perspectives on transport and climate change mitigation," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 83-93.
    10. S. M. Phyoe & Y. X. Lee & Z. W. Zhong, 2016. "Determining the Future Demand: Studies for Air Traffic Forecasting," International Journal of Technology and Engineering Studies, PROF.IR.DR.Mohid Jailani Mohd Nor, vol. 2(3), pages 83-86.
    11. Dupoux, Marion, 2019. "The land use change time-accounting failure," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-1.
    12. Emmanuel Hache, 2018. "Do renewable energies improve energy security in the long run?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 156, pages 127-135.
    13. Amizadeh, Fatemeh & Alonso, Gustavo & Benito, Arturo & Morales-Alonso, Gustavo, 2016. "Analysis of the recent evolution of commercial air traffic CO2 emissions and fleet utilization in the six largest national markets of the European Union," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 9-19.
    14. Gössling, Stefan & Cohen, Scott, 2014. "Why sustainable transport policies will fail: EU climate policy in the light of transport taboos," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 197-207.
    15. Lilis Yuaningsih & R. Adjeng Mariana Febrianti, 2021. "The Nexus between Technological Advancement and CO2 Emissions in Malaysia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(6), pages 160-169.
    16. Grampella, Mattia & Lo, Pak Lam & Martini, Gianmaria & Scotti, Davide, 2017. "The impact of technology progress on aviation noise and emissions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 525-540.
    17. Zhang, Chuanguo & Nian, Jiang, 2013. "Panel estimation for transport sector CO2 emissions and its affecting factors: A regional analysis in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 918-926.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Air transport; CO2 emissions; Forecasting; Climate change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L93 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Air Transportation
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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