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Fixed-Term Employment and Fertility: Evidence from German Micro Data

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  • Wolfgang Auer
  • Natalia Danzer

Abstract

We study the short- to medium-run effects of starting a career on a fixed-term contract on subsequent fertility outcomes. We focus on the career start since we expect that temporary contracts and their inherent economic uncertainty imply a path dependency which might have spill-over effects on other domains of life. Our empirical analysis is based on rich data from the German Socio-Economic Panel which provides comprehensive information about individuals’ labour market history as well as fertility behaviour. Our main results are: Women (i) tend to postpone their first birth due to fixed-term employment at labour market entry and (ii) reduce the number of children in the first 10 years after graduation. These associations are strongest in the subsample of native women with at least vocational training. (iii) In contrast, we find no significant correlations for men. We argue that these findings are robust to potential endogeneity threats.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Auer & Natalia Danzer, 2014. "Fixed-Term Employment and Fertility: Evidence from German Micro Data," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 719, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp719
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew E. Clark & Anthony Lepinteur, 2022. "A Natural Experiment on Job Insecurity and Fertility in France," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 386-398, May.
    2. Wooden, Mark & Trinh, Trong-Anh & Mooi-Reci, Irma, 2021. "The Differential Impacts of Contingent Employment on Fertility: Evidence from Australia," IZA Discussion Papers 14850, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Wolfgang Auer & Natalia Danzer & Anita Fichtl & Anita Dietrich, 2015. "Ökonomische Unsicherheit: Befristete Verträge erschweren Familiengründung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(18), pages 35-41, September.
    4. Inga Laß & Irma Mooi-Reci & Mark Wooden & Martin Bujard, 2024. "Temporary employment and first births: A path analysis of the underlying mechanisms using Australian and German panel data," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2024n05, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    5. Landaud, Fanny, 2021. "From employment to engagement? Stable jobs, temporary jobs, and cohabiting relationships," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    6. Josefine Koebe & Jan Marcus, 2022. "The Length of Schooling and the Timing of Family Formation [Income Taxes and the Timing of Marital Decisions]," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 68(1), pages 1-45.
    7. Michael Weber, 2016. "Wage Determination and Employment Adjustment in Croatia," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(01), pages 22-26, April.
    8. Virginia Sanchez Marcos & Ezgi Kaya & Nezih Guner, 2017. "Labor Market Frictions and Lowest Low Fertility," 2017 Meeting Papers 1015, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Scheuring, Sonja & Voßemer, Jonas & Baranowska-Rataj, Anna & Tattarini, Giulia, 2021. "Does Fixed-Term Employment Have Spillover Effects on the Well-Being of Partners? A Panel Data Analysis for East and West Germany," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 22(7), pages 3001-3021.
    10. Pieroni, Luca & d’Agostino, Giorgio & Lanari, Donatella & Scarlato, Margherita, 2023. "Temporary employment and fertility in Italy: The effect of two labor market reforms in the early 2000s," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    11. Tatiana Karabchuk, 2020. "Job Instability and Fertility Intentions of Young Adults in Europe: Does Labor Market Legislation Matter?," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 688(1), pages 225-245, March.
    12. Inga Laß, 2020. "The Effects of Non-standard Employment on the Transition to Parenthood Within Couples: A Comparison of Germany and Australia," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(5), pages 843-874, November.
    13. Morgenroth, Nicolas & Schels, Brigitte & Teichler, Nils, 2022. "Are Men or Women More Unsettled by Fixed-Term Contracts? Gender Differences in Affective Job Insecurity and the Role of Household Context and Labour Market Positions," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 560-574.
    14. Michael Weber, 2016. "Wage Determination and Employment Adjustment in Croatia," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(1), pages 22-26, April.
    15. Nezih Guner & Ezgi Kaya & Virginia Sánchez‐Marcos, 2024. "Labor Market Institutions And Fertility," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1551-1587, August.
    16. Mathias Kloss & Thomas Kirschstein & Steffen Liebscher & Martin Petrick, 2019. "Robust Productivity Analysis: An application to German FADN data," Papers 1902.00678, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2019.
    17. Inga Laß & Thomas Skora & Heiko Rüger & Mark Wooden & Martin Bujard, 2024. "Does temporary employment increase length of commuting? Longitudinal evidence from Australia and Germany," Transportation, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1467-1491, August.
    18. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Smyth, Russell & Trinh, Trong-Anh & Yew, Siew Ling, 2022. "Local crime and fertility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 312-331.
    19. Landaud, Fanny, 2019. "From Employment to Engagement? Stable Jobs, Temporary Jobs, and Cohabiting Relationships," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 10/2019, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics, revised 30 Apr 2019.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Career start; fixed-term employment; postponement of maternity; fertility; economic uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts

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