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Fertility Reactions to the "Great Recession" in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua R. Goldstein

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Michaela Kreyenfeld

    (Hertie School of Governance)

  • Aiva Jasilioniene

    (Max-Planck-Institut für Demografische Forschung)

  • Deniz Dilan Karaman Örsal

    (Leuphana Universität Lüneburg)

Abstract

Objective: This paper provides recent cross-national evidence of the impact of the great recession on fertility in Europe in the context of the recent decade. Methods: Using data from the Human Fertility Database (HFD), from Eurostat, and from the OECD database, we employ fixed-effects modeling to study how changes in unemployment rates have affected birth rates across Europe. Results: We find that countries that were hit hard by the recession show reduced fertility when compared with a continuation of recent trends, especially at younger ages. Conclusions: Our results indicate a strong relationship between economic conditions and fertility. However, there is variation by region, age, and parity suggesting the importance of life course and institutional factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua R. Goldstein & Michaela Kreyenfeld & Aiva Jasilioniene & Deniz Dilan Karaman Örsal, 2013. "Fertility Reactions to the "Great Recession" in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(4), pages 85-104.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:29:y:2013:i:4
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michal Brzezinski, 2018. "What accounts for the rise of low self-rated health during the recent economic crisis in Europe?," Working Papers 2018-16, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    2. Maria De Paola & Roberto Nisticò & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2020. "Fertility Decisions And Employment Protection: The Unintended Consequences Of The Italian Jobs Act," Working Papers 202003, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF.
    3. Sylë Kolica, 2021. "Coordination of Actors, Farmers - Processors and the Social Welfare of the Citizens in Peja," European Journal of Economics and Business Studies Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 2, January -.
    4. Chiara Ludovica Comolli, 2017. "The fertility response to the Great Recession in Europe and the United States: Structural economic conditions and perceived economic uncertainty," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(51), pages 1549-1600.
    5. Lyons-Amos, Mark & Schoon, Ingrid, 2018. "Differential responses in first birth behaviour to economic recession in the United Kingdom," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 50(2), pages 275-290.
    6. Daniele Vignoli & Raffaele Guetto & Giacomo Bazzani & Elena Pirani & Alessandra Minello, 2020. "Economic Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe: Narratives of the Future," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2020_01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    7. Wolfgang Auer & Natalia Danzer, 2016. "Fixed-Term Employment and Fertility: Evidence from German Micro Data," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 62(4), pages 595-623.
    8. Raffaele Guetto & Giacomo Bazzani & Daniele Vignoli, 2020. "Narratives of the future shape fertility in uncertain times. Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2020_11, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    9. Aparicio, Ainoa & González, Libertad & Vall Castelló, Judit, 2020. "Newborn health and the business cycle: The role of birth order," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    10. Susanne Fahlén & Livia Sz. Oláh, 2018. "Economic uncertainty and first-birth intentions in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(28), pages 795-834.
    11. Piotr Dominiak & Ewa Lechman & Anna Okonowicz, 2015. "Fertility Rebound And Economic Growth. New Evidence For 18 Countries Over The Period 1970–2011," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 10(1), pages 91-112, March.
    12. Danilo Bolano & Daniele Vignoli, 2020. "First Union Formation in Australia: Actual Constraints or Perceived Uncertainty?," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2020_07, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    13. Barbara Hofmann & Michaela Kreyenfeld & Arne Uhlendorff, 2017. "Job Displacement and First Birth Over the Business Cycle," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(3), pages 933-959, June.
    14. Kostas Rontos & Andrea Colantoni & Luca Salvati & Enrico Maria Mosconi & Antonio Giménez Morera, 2020. "Resident or Present? Population Census Data Tell You More about Suburbanization," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-13, October.
    15. Wolfgang Auer & Natalia Danzer, 2015. "Uncertainty in the labour market: How does fixed-term employment affect fertility and mental health of the young generation?," IBS Working Papers 6/2015, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    16. Raffaele Guetto & Giacomo Bazzani & Daniele Vignoli, 2022. "Narratives of the future and fertility decision-making in uncertain times. An application to the COVID-19 pandemic," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 20(1), pages 223-260.
    17. Maria De Paola & Roberto Nisticò & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2021. "Academic Careers And Fertility Decisions," Working Papers 202101, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF.
    18. Sara Ayllón, 2019. "Job insecurity and fertility in Europe," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1321-1347, December.
    19. Wolfgang Auer, 2018. "Empirical Essays on the Socioeconomic Consequences of Economic Uncertainty," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 79.
    20. Kostas Rontos & Luca Salvati, 2020. "Space Matters? Exploring Gender Differentials in the Age at Marriage, Greece (1980–2017)," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-18, April.
    21. Ilaria Zambon & Kostas Rontos & Cecilia Reynaud & Luca Salvati, 2020. "Toward an unwanted dividend? Fertility decline and the North–South divide in Italy, 1952–2018," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 169-187, February.
    22. Luisa Natali & Bruno Martorano & Sudhanshu Handa & Goran Holmqvist & Yekaterina Chzhen, 2014. "Trends in Child Well-being in EU Countries during the Great Recession: A cross-country comparative perspective," Papers inwopa730, Innocenti Working Papers.
    23. LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Arpino, Bruno & Rosina, Alessandro, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain and UK," SocArXiv wr9jb, Center for Open Science.
    24. Chiara L. Comolli & Daniele Vignoli, 2019. "Spread-ing uncertainty, shrinking birth rates," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2019_08, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    25. Volker Rieke & Gerhard Bosch & Friedrich Hubert Esser & Klaus-Dieter Sohn & Sebastian Czuratis & Felix Rauner & Günter Lambertz, 2013. "Duale Ausbildung, ›Jugendgarantie‹ oder zusätzliche Hilfsfonds: Was tun gegen die Jugendarbeitslosigkeit in Europa?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(16), pages 03-24, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; birth order; Europe; unemployment; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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