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Unstable work histories and fertility in France

Author

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  • Daniel Ciganda

    (Max-Planck-Institut für Demografische Forschung)

Abstract

Background: The emergence of new evidence suggesting a sign shift in the long-standing negative correlation between prosperity and fertility levels has sparked a renewed interest in understanding the relationship between economic conditions and fertility decisions. In this context, the notion of uncertainty has gained relevance in analyses of low fertility. So far, most studies have approached this notion using snapshot indicators such as type of contract or employment situation. However, these types of measures seem to be falling short in capturing what is intrinsically a dynamic process. Objective: Our first objective is to analyze to what extent employment trajectories have become less stable over time, and the second, to determine whether or not employment instability has an impact on the timing and quantum of fertility in France. Additionally, we present a new indicator of employment instability that takes into account both the frequency and duration of unemployment, with the objective of comparing its performance against other, more commonly used indicators of economic uncertainty. Methods: Our study combines exploratory (Sequence Analysis) with confirmatory (Event History, Logistic Regression) methods to understand the relationship between early life-course uncertainty and the timing and intensity of fertility. We use employment histories from the three available waves of the Etude des relations familiales et intergenerationnelles (ERFI), a panel survey carried out by INED and INSEE which constitutes the base of the Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) in France. Results: Although France is characterized by strong family policies and high and stable fertility levels, we find that employment instability not only has a strong and persistent negative effect on the final number of children for both men and women, but also contributes to fertility postponement in the case of men. Regarding the timing of the transition to motherhood, we show how employment instability has a positive influence for women with more traditional views about the division of labor, and a negative influence among those with more egalitarian views.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Ciganda, 2015. "Unstable work histories and fertility in France," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(28), pages 843-876.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:32:y:2015:i:28
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2015.32.28
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    Cited by:

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    2. Luca Salvati, 2020. "Demographic Dynamics, Urban Cycles and Economic Downturns: A Long-term Investigation of a Metropolitan Region in Europe, 1956–2016," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(3), pages 549-575, June.
    3. Massimo Cecchini & Sirio Cividino & Rosario Turco & Luca Salvati, 2019. "Population Age Structure, Complex Socio-Demographic Systems and Resilience Potential: A Spatio-Temporal, Evenness-Based Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-12, April.
    4. Zachary Van Winkle & Anette Fasang, 2021. "The complexity of employment and family life courses across 20th century Europe: More evidence for larger cross-national differences but little change across 1916‒1966 birth cohorts," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(32), pages 775-810.
    5. Luca Salvati & Margherita Carlucci & Pere Serra & Ilaria Zambon, 2019. "Demographic Transitions and Socioeconomic Development in Italy, 1862–2009: A Brief Overview," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, January.
    6. Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir & Sirio Cividino & Gianluca Egidi & Rosanna Salvia & Luca Salvati, 2020. "Rapidity of Change in Population Age Structures: A Local Approach Based on Multiway Factor Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-13, April.
    7. Schmitt, Christian, 2021. "The impact of economic uncertainty, precarious employment, and risk attitudes on the transition to parenthood," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 47, pages 1-1.
    8. Elena Bastianelli & Daniele Vignoli, 2022. "The Gendered Relationship Between (Old and New Forms of) Employment Instability and Union Dissolution," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 1021-1048, June.
    9. Richiardi, Matteo & He, Zhechun, 2020. "Measuring economic insecurity: a review of the literature," Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis Working Paper Series CEMPA1/20, Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    10. Annalisa Busetta & Daria Mendola & Daniele Vignoli, 2019. "Persistent joblessness and fertility intentions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(8), pages 185-218.
    11. Anna Matysiak & Tomáš Sobotka & Daniele Vignoli, 2021. "The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 29-64, March.
    12. James M. Raymo & Akihisa Shibata, 2017. "Unemployment, Nonstandard Employment, and Fertility: Insights From Japan’s “Lost 20 Years”," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(6), pages 2301-2329, December.
    13. Brian Buh, 2021. "Measuring the Effect of Employment uncertainty on Fertility in Europe (A literature review)," VID Working Papers 2103, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    14. Elena Bastianelli & Daniele Vignoli, 2021. "Instability of Employment Careers and Union Dissolution. A Complex Micro-level Relation," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2021_04, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    15. Giuseppe Ricciardo Lamonica & Gloria Polinesi & Luca Salvati, 2022. "Sprawl or Segregation? Local Fertility as a Proxy of Socio-spatial Disparities Under Sequential Economic Downturns," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1129-1160, December.
    16. Valerio Moretti & Luca Salvati & Massimo Cecchini & Ilaria Zambon, 2019. "A Long-Term Analysis of Demographic Processes, Socioeconomic ‘Modernization’ and Forest Expansion in a European Country," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-16, January.
    17. Leonardo Salvatore Alaimo & Mariateresa Ciommi & Ioannis Vardopoulos & Bogdana Nosova & Luca Salvati, 2022. "The Medium-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Population Dynamics: The Case of Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-12, October.
    18. Raffaele Guetto & Maria Francesca Morabito & Daniele Vignoli & Matthias Vollbracht, 2021. "Media Coverage of the Economy and Fertility," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2021_12, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    19. Giammarco Alderotti & Raffaele Guetto & Paolo Barbieri & Stefani Scherer & Daniele Vignoli, 2022. "Unstable Employment Careers and Completed Fertility before and after Labour Market Deregulation in Italy," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2022_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    20. Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir & Gianluca Egidi & Rosanna Salvia & Luca Salvati & Adele Sateriano & Antonio Gimenez-Morera, 2021. "Recession, Local Fertility, and Urban Sustainability: Results of a Quasi-Experiment in Greece, 1991–2018," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-18, January.
    21. Chiara Ludovica Comolli, 2021. "Couples' paid work, state-level unemployment, and first births in the United States," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(38), pages 1149-1184.
    22. Ariane Pailhé, 2017. "The convergence of second-generation immigrants' fertility patterns in France: The role of sociocultural distance between parents' and host country," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(45), pages 1361-1398.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    employment instability; fertility; economic uncertainties; sequence analysis; France;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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