IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/eurpop/v38y2022i2d10.1007_s10680-022-09605-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Less Partnering, Less Children, or Both? Analysis of the Drivers of First Birth Decline in Finland Since 2010

Author

Listed:
  • Julia Hellstrand

    (University of Helsinki
    Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)

  • Jessica Nisén

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
    University of Turku)

  • Mikko Myrskylä

    (University of Helsinki
    Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)

Abstract

In the 2010s, fertility has declined in the Nordic countries, most strikingly in Finland, and first births drive the decline. It remains unclear whether this decline results from decreased fertility within unions, changing union dynamics, or both. Thus, we investigated changes in the union–first birth dynamics from 2000 through 2018 in Finland using full-coverage population register data and an incidence-based multistate model. To do so, we calculated the yearly age-specific transition probabilities across states of single, cohabitation, marriage, and first births among 15- to 45-year-old childless men and women. We found lower fertility rates in unions after 2010, increasing dissolution rates amongst cohabiting couples, and long-term declines in the transition to marriage. Counterfactual simulations showed that, for the decline in first births since 2010, fertility within unions matters more (three-quarters) than union dynamics (one-quarter): that is, lower fertility in cohabitating and married individuals explained 42% and 13% of the decline, respectively, and decreasing fertility rates among couples entering cohabitation explained a further 17%. Decreasing marriage (19%) and cohabitation rates (2–4%) as well as higher union dissolution rates (6%) explained a smaller share of the first birth decline. The decline in first births was somewhat sharper among the lower social strata, but across strata the decreasing first birth transitions in unions explained most of the decline. To conclude, while changing union dynamics provide a partial explanation, postponing or foregoing fertility within unions represents the primary reason for the fertility decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Mikko Myrskylä, 2022. "Less Partnering, Less Children, or Both? Analysis of the Drivers of First Birth Decline in Finland Since 2010," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(2), pages 191-221, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:38:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s10680-022-09605-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10680-022-09605-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10680-022-09605-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10680-022-09605-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter McDonald, 2000. "Gender Equity in Theories of Fertility Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(3), pages 427-439, September.
    2. Michael Brien & Lee Lillard & Linda Waite, 1999. "Interrelated family-building behaviors: Cohabitation, marriage, and nonmarital conception," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 36(4), pages 535-551, November.
    3. Jalovaara, Marika & Fasang, Anette Eva, 2017. "From never partnered to serial cohabitors: union trajectories to childlessness," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 36, pages 1703-1720.
    4. Tomas Frejka, 2008. "Overview Chapter 2: Parity distribution and completed family size in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(4), pages 47-72.
    5. Goldin, Claudia, 2006. "The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women’s Employment, Education, and Family," Scholarly Articles 2943933, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    6. Gunnar Andersson & Marit Rønsen & Lisbeth B. Knudsen & Trude Lappegård & Gerda Neyer & Kari Skrede & Kathrin Teschner & Andres Vikat, 2009. "Cohort fertility patterns in the Nordic countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(14), pages 313-352.
    7. Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Mikko Myrskylä, 2020. "All-time low period fertility in Finland: Demographic drivers, tempo effects, and cohort implications," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 74(3), pages 315-329, September.
    8. Marika Jalovaara, 2012. "Socio-economic resources and first-union formation in Finland, cohorts born 1969–81," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 66(1), pages 69-85.
    9. Marika Jalovaara & Anette Fasang, 2017. "From never partnered to serial cohabitors: Union trajectories to childlessness," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(55), pages 1703-1720.
    10. Aart C. Liefbroer, 2005. "The Impact of Perceived Costs and Rewards of Childbearing on Entry into Parenthood: Evidence from a Panel Study," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 367-391, December.
    11. Jan Van Bavel, 2012. "The reversal of gender inequality in education, union formation and fertility in Europe," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 10(1), pages 127-154.
    12. Marika Jalovaara & Anneli Miettinen, 2013. "Does his paycheck also matter?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(31), pages 881-916.
    13. Marika Jalovaara & Gerda Neyer & Gunnar Andersson & Johan Dahlberg & Lars Dommermuth & Peter Fallesen & Trude Lappegård, 2019. "Education, Gender, and Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 563-586, July.
    14. Pedro Mira & Namkee Ahn, 2002. "A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(4), pages 667-682.
    15. Martin Kolk, 2019. "Weak support for a U-shaped pattern between societal gender equality and fertility when comparing societies across time," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(2), pages 27-48.
    16. Marika Jalovaara & Gunnar Andersson, 2018. "Disparities in Children’s Family Experiences by Mother’s Socioeconomic Status: The Case of Finland," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(5), pages 751-768, October.
    17. Kryštof Zeman & Eva Beaujouan & Zuzanna Brzozowska & Tomáš Sobotka, 2018. "Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries: Decomposition using parity progression ratios," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(25), pages 651-690.
    18. Jessica Nisén & Pekka Martikainen & Mikko Myrskylä & Karri Silventoinen, 2018. "Education, Other Socioeconomic Characteristics Across the Life Course, and Fertility Among Finnish Men," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 337-366, August.
    19. Fiona Steele & Constantinos Kallis & Harvey Goldstein & Heather Joshi, 2005. "The relationship between childbearing and transitions from marriage and cohabitation in Britain," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(4), pages 647-673, November.
    20. Anna Rotkirch, 2020. "The wish for a child," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 49-61.
    21. Marika Jalovaara, 2013. "Socioeconomic Resources and the Dissolution of Cohabitations and Marriages [Ressources socio-économiques et dissolution des cohabitations et des mariages]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(2), pages 167-193, May.
    22. Johan Surkyn & Ron Lesthaeghe, 2004. "Value Orientations and the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) in Northern, Western and Southern Europe: An Update," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(3), pages 45-86.
    23. Ron Lesthaeghe, 2010. "The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(2), pages 211-251, June.
    24. Kateryna Savelieva & Natalie Nitsche & Venla Berg & Anneli Miettinen & Anna Rotkirch & Markus Jokela, 2021. "Birth cohort changes in fertility ideals: evidence from repeated cross-sectional surveys in Finland," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2021-010, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    25. Claudia Goldin, 2006. "The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women's Employment, Education, and Family," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 1-21, May.
    26. Gøsta Esping-Andersen & Francesco C. Billari, 2015. "Re-theorizing Family Demographics," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(1), pages 1-31, March.
    27. Thomas Anderson & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2015. "Low Fertility, Socioeconomic Development, and Gender Equity," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(3), pages 381-407, September.
    28. Jessica Nisén & Pekka Martikainen & Karri Silventoinen & Mikko Myrskylä, 2014. "Age-specific fertility by educational level in the Finnish male cohort born 1940‒1950," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(5), pages 119-136.
    29. Tomáš Sobotka & Vegard Skirbekk & Dimiter Philipov, 2011. "Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(2), pages 267-306, June.
    30. Mikko Myrskyla & Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari, 2011. "High development and fertility: fertility at older reproductive ages and gender equality explain the positive link," Working Papers 049, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
    31. Mariana Fernández Soto & Benoît Laplante, 2020. "The effect of union dissolution on the fertility of women in Montevideo, Uruguay," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(4), pages 97-128.
    32. Jan M. Hoem & Marika Jalovaara & Cornelia Muresan, 2013. "Recent fertility patterns of Finnish women by union status," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(14), pages 409-420.
    33. Frances Goldscheider & Eva Bernhardt & Trude Lappegård, 2015. "The Gender Revolution: A Framework for Understanding Changing Family and Demographic Behavior," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(2), pages 207-239, June.
    34. Mikko Myrskylä & Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari, 2009. "Advances in development reverse fertility declines," Nature, Nature, vol. 460(7256), pages 741-743, August.
    35. Tomáš Sobotka, 2008. "Overview Chapter 6: The diverse faces of the Second Demographic Transition in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(8), pages 171-224.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mikko Myrskylä & Julia Hellstrand & Sampo Lappo & Angelo Lorenti & Jessica Nisén & Ziwei Rao & Heikki Tikanmäki, 2024. "Declining fertility, human capital investment, and economic sustainability," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2024-002, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Sofi Ohlsson-Wijk & Gunnar Andersson, 2022. "Disentangling the Swedish fertility decline of the 2010s," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 47(12), pages 345-358.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Mikko Myrskylä, 2021. "Less partnering, less children, or both? Analysis of the drivers of first-birth decline in Finland since 2010?," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2021-008, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Mikko Myrskylä, 2019. "All-time low period fertility in Finland: drivers, tempo effects, and cohort implications," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2019-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Vitor Miranda & Peter Fallesen & Lars Dommermuth & Mikko Myrskylä, 2020. "Not just later, but fewer: novel trends in cohort fertility in the Nordic countries," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-007, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    5. Marika Jalovaara & Gerda Neyer & Gunnar Andersson & Johan Dahlberg & Lars Dommermuth & Peter Fallesen & Trude Lappegård, 2019. "Education, Gender, and Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 563-586, July.
    6. Daniele Vignoli & Raffaele Guetto & Giacomo Bazzani & Elena Pirani & Alessandra Minello, 2020. "Economic Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe: Narratives of the Future," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2020_01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    7. Trude Lappegård, 2020. "Future fertility trends are shaped at the intersection of gender and social stratification," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 43-48.
    8. Sinn Won Han & Mary C. Brinton, 2022. "Theories of Postindustrial Fertility Decline: An Empirical Examination," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(2), pages 303-330, June.
    9. Menghan Zhao, 2018. "From Motherhood Premium to Motherhood Penalty? Heterogeneous Effects of Motherhood Stages on Women’s Economic Outcomes in Urban China," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(6), pages 967-1002, December.
    10. Zuzanna Brzozowska & Eva Beaujouan & Kryštof Zeman, 2022. "Is Two Still Best? Change in Parity-Specific Fertility Across Education in Low-Fertility Countries," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(5), pages 2085-2114, October.
    11. Jonas Wood & Sebastian Klüsener & Karel Neels & Mikko Myrskylä, 2017. "Is a positive link between human development and fertility attainable? Insights from the Belgian vanguard case," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2017-014, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    12. Marco Le Moglie & Letizia Mencarini & Chiara Rapallini, 2017. "Do Rich Parents Enjoy Children Less?," Working Papers - Economics wp2017_08.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    13. Maricruz Lacalle-Calderon & Manuel Perez-Trujillo & Isabel Neira, 2017. "Fertility and Economic Development: Quantile Regression Evidence on the Inverse J-shaped Pattern," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31, February.
    14. Linus Andersson, 2023. "The Role of Gender Differences in Partnering and Re-partnering for Gender Differences in Completed Fertility," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(2), pages 1-28, April.
    15. Bijlsma, Maarten J. & Wilson, Ben, 2020. "Modelling the socio-economic determinants of fertility: a mediation analysis using the parametric g-formula," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102414, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Mikko Myrskylä, 2022. "Educational field, economic uncertainty, and fertility decline in Finland in 2010–2019," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2022-022, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    17. Alessandra Trimarchi & Jan Bavel, 2020. "Partners’ Educational Characteristics and Fertility: Disentangling the Effects of Earning Potential and Unemployment Risk on Second Births," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(3), pages 439-464, July.
    18. Tomáš Sobotka, 2020. "Introduction: the relevance of studying fertility across time and space," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 1-24.
    19. Marcel Raab & Emanuela Struffolino, 2020. "The Heterogeneity of Partnership Trajectories to Childlessness in Germany," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(1), pages 53-70, March.
    20. Alessandra Trimarchi & Jan Van Bavel, 2017. "Pathways to marital and non-marital first birth: the role of his and her education," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 15(1), pages 143-179.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:38:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s10680-022-09605-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.