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US life expectancy stalls due to cardiovascular disease, not drug deaths

Author

Listed:
  • Neil K. Mehta

    (Department of Health Management and Policy, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, MI 48109)

  • Leah R. Abrams

    (Department of Health Management and Policy, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, MI 48109)

  • Mikko Myrskylä

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock 18057, Germany; Center for Social Data Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki 00014, Finland)

Abstract

After decades of robust growth, the rise in US life expectancy stalled after 2010. Explanations for the stall have focused on rising drug-related deaths. Here we show that a stagnating decline in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality was the main culprit, outpacing and overshadowing the effects of all other causes of death. The CVD stagnation held back the increase of US life expectancy at age 25 y by 1.14 y in women and men, between 2010 and 2017. Rising drug-related deaths had a much smaller effect: 0.1 y in women and 0.4 y in men. Comparisons with other high-income countries reveal that the US CVD stagnation is unusually strong, contributing to a stark mortality divergence between the US and peer nations. Without the aid of CVD mortality declines, future US life expectancy gains must come from other causes—a monumental task given the enormity of earlier declines in CVD death rates. Reversal of the drug overdose epidemic will be beneficial, but insufficient for achieving pre-2010 pace of life expectancy growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Neil K. Mehta & Leah R. Abrams & Mikko Myrskylä, 2020. "US life expectancy stalls due to cardiovascular disease, not drug deaths," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(13), pages 6998-7000, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:117:y:2020:p:6998-7000
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Salvatore Scognamiglio & Mario Marino, 2023. "Backtesting stochastic mortality models by prediction interval-based metrics," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 3825-3847, August.
    2. Kotschy, Rainer, 2022. "Health improvements impact income inequality," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    3. Andrea Nigri & Susanna Levantesi & Jose Manuel Aburto, 2022. "Leveraging deep neural networks to estimate age-specific mortality from life expectancy at birth," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 47(8), pages 199-232.
    4. Samuel H. Preston & Yana C. Vierboom & Mikko Myrskylä, 2023. "Socio-behavioral factors contributing to recent mortality trends in the United States," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2023-019, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    5. Alaimo, Leonardo Salvatore & Nigri, Andrea, 2024. "The gender gap in life expectancy and lifespan disparity as social risk indicators for international countries: A fuzzy clustering approach," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Mani, Sneha Sarah & Schut, Rebecca Anna, 2023. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on inequalities in preventive health screenings: Trends and implications for U.S. population health," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    7. Zheng, Hui & Dirlam, Jonathan & Choi, Yoonyoung & George, Linda, 2023. "Understanding the health decline of Americans in boomers to millennials," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
    8. Kotschy, Rainer, 2021. "Health dynamics shape life-cycle incomes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    9. Qiu, Yun & Liu, Yunning & Shi, Wei & Zhou, Maigeng, 2024. "The impact of ozone pollution on mortality: Evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    10. Henrik-Alexander Schubert & Christian Dudel & Marina Kolobova & Mikko Myrskylä, 2023. "Revisiting the J-shape: human development and fertility in the United States," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2023-022, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    11. Alan C. Logan & Susan H. Berman & Richard B. Scott & Brian M. Berman & Susan L. Prescott, 2021. "Catalyst Twenty-Twenty: Post-Traumatic Growth at Scales of Person, Place and Planet," Challenges, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, March.
    12. Abrams, Leah & Friedman, Kevin & Maestas, Nicole, 2023. "The role of physical and cognitive/emotional functioning in the associations between common health conditions and working," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    13. Carlo G. Camarda & Ugofilippo Basellini, 2021. "Smoothing, Decomposing and Forecasting Mortality Rates," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(3), pages 569-602, July.
    14. Andrea Nigri & Elisabetta Barbi & Susanna Levantesi, 2022. "The relay for human longevity: country-specific contributions to the increase of the best-practice life expectancy," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4061-4073, December.

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