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Diverging patterns of fertility decline in Uruguay

Author

Listed:
  • Mathías Nathan

    (Universidad Católica del Uruguay)

  • Ignacio Pardo

    (Universidad de la República)

  • Wanda Cabella

    (Universidad de la República)

Abstract

Background: The total fertility rate (TFR) in Uruguay fell from 2.5 to 1.9 children per woman between 1996 and 2011. However, no study to date has examined the decline of the TFR by observing changes in fertility patterns by birth order. Objective: The main aim of this study is to analyze recent changes in fertility level and timing of childbearing by birth order in Uruguay. Methods: We estimate unconditional and conditional age- and birth-order-specific fertility rates for 1996-2011 using data from vital statistics, population census, and national population estimates. Additionally, three period summary measures of birth-order-specific fertility quantum are calculated: TFR, PATFR and TFRp*. Timing changes by birth order are examined with MAB and TMAB, focusing on MAB1 and its standard deviation and comparing their evolutions in Uruguay with those of selected countries. Results: Fertility decline fits a parity-specific stopping model with a moderate increase in the mean ages of first, second, and third births. The distribution of conditional fertility rates for first and second births depicts an asymmetric bimodal shape linked to the increasing heterogeneity of the timing of childbearing. Compared to countries with similar fertility trends, heterogeneity in the age at first birth in Uruguay is remarkably high. Conclusions: Previous studies suggest that heterogeneity in first and second birth timing is related to structural social inequalities, as women from lower social strata have not significantly changed the age at which they bear a first child, whereas women of middle to high social strata have started to postpone it. The new evidence reinforces the idea that postponement transition in Uruguay cannot be studied without considering this consolidation of social status polarization in fertility timing.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathías Nathan & Ignacio Pardo & Wanda Cabella, 2016. "Diverging patterns of fertility decline in Uruguay," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(20), pages 563-586.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:34:y:2016:i:20
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2016.34.20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Nathan, Mathías, 2015. "La creciente heterogeneidad en la edad al primer hijo en el Uruguay: un análisis de las cohortes de 1951 a 1990," Notas de Población, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eduardo L. G. Rios‐Neto & Adriana Miranda‐Ribeiro & Paula Miranda‐Ribeiro, 2018. "Fertility Differentials by Education in Brazil: From the Conclusion of Fertility to the Onset of Postponement Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 44(3), pages 489-517, September.
    2. Ana Fostik & Mariana Fernández Soto & Fernando Ruiz-Vallejo & Daniel Ciganda, 2023. "Union Instability and Fertility: An International Perspective," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-47, December.
    3. Amarante, Verónica & Bucheli, Marisa & Colacce, Maira & Nathan, Mathias, 2021. "Aging, education and intergenerational flows in Uruguay," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    4. Elisabeth K. Kraus & Teresa Castro-Martín, 2018. "Does Migrant Background Matter for Adolescents’ Fertility Preferences? The Latin American 1.5 Generation in Spain," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 277-312, August.
    5. Ewa Batyra, 2016. "Fertility and the changing pattern of the timing of childbearing in Colombia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(46), pages 1343-1372.
    6. Cecilia Velázquez & Wanda Cabella, 2022. "Abortion Legalization in Uruguay: Effects on Adolescent Fertility," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0298, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    7. Rodrigo Ceni & Maira Colacce & Gonzalo Salas, 2023. "Initial inequality, unequal development: Effects of family movements on child development," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 23-07, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    8. Mariana Fernández Soto & Benoît Laplante, 2020. "The effect of union dissolution on the fertility of women in Montevideo, Uruguay," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(4), pages 97-128.
    9. Rodrigo Ceni & Cecilia Parada & Ivone Perazzo & Eliana Sena, 2020. "Birth Collapse and Long-Acting Reversible Contraceptive Policies," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 20-14, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    10. Laura Robinson & Jeremy Schulz & Matías Dodel & Teresa Correa & Eduardo Villanueva-Mansilla & Sayonara Leal & Claudia Magallanes-Blanco & Leandro Rodriguez-Medina & Hopeton S. Dunn & Lloyd Levine & Ro, 2020. "Digital Inclusion Across the Americas and Caribbean," Social Inclusion, Cogitatio Press, vol. 8(2), pages 244-259.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; Uruguay; birth order;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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