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What Causes Exchange Rate Volatility? Evidence from Selected EMU Members and Candidates for EMU Membership Countries

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  • Nikolaos Giannellis

    (Department of Economics, University of Crete, Greece)

  • Athanasios Papadopoulos

    (Department of Economics, University of Crete, Greece)

Abstract

We allow for monetary, real, and financial variables to assess the relevant importance of each of the variables to exchange rate volatility in the case of selected EMU members and candidate countries. Ex-ante analysis shows that volatility in the Polish zloty/euro and the Hungarian forint/euro forex markets can be influenced by the monetary-side of the economy. On the other hand, ex-post analysis shows that forex markets in France, Italy and Spain had been influenced, during the pre-EMU era, by monetary and real shocks. However, the Irish pound exchange rate per ECU had been affected by only real shocks.
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Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos Giannellis & Athanasios Papadopoulos, 2010. "What Causes Exchange Rate Volatility? Evidence from Selected EMU Members and Candidates for EMU Membership Countries," Working Papers 1004, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:crt:wpaper:1004
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate Volatility; Bivariate GARCH; Volatility Spillover;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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