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EMU and the Stability and Volatility of Foreign Exchange: Some Empirical Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Bask, Mikael

    (Department of Economics, Umeå University)

  • de Luna, Xavier

    (Department of Statistics)

Abstract

How has the European monetary integration, with the creation of the EMU, affected the stability and volatility of foreign exchange? In order to answer this question, stability and volatility measures are defined and calculated. We then use these to investigate the changes in the stability and volatility of 16 European currencies, and in the volatility of the shocks to these currencies. The stability measures are based on smooth Lyapunov exponents, while the volatility measures utilize the variances. The results indicate that when most of the currencies become more stable, the majority also become less volatile. For example, following the agreement of the Maastricht Treaty most currencies became more stable and less volatile, whereas they became less stable and more volatile when the Danish public voted against the treaty. Finally, there is no empirical support for the view that a decision to step aside from a closer monetary collaboration has a negative effect on the stability of the currency.

Suggested Citation

  • Bask, Mikael & de Luna, Xavier, 2001. "EMU and the Stability and Volatility of Foreign Exchange: Some Empirical Evidence," Umeå Economic Studies 565, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:umnees:0565
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. C. H. Hommes, 2001. "Financial markets as nonlinear adaptive evolutionary systems," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 149-167.
    2. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    3. Bask, Mikael & de Luna, Xavier, 2005. "EMU and the stability and volatility of foreign exchange: Some empirical evidence," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 737-750.
    4. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Bask Mikael & de Luna Xavier, 2002. "Characterizing the Degree of Stability of Non-linear Dynamic Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, April.
    6. Whang, Yoon-Jae & Linton, Oliver, 1999. "The asymptotic distribution of nonparametric estimates of the Lyapunov exponent for stochastic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 1-42, July.
    7. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    8. Dechert, W D & Gencay, R, 1992. "Lyapunov Exponents as a Nonparametric Diagnostic for Stability Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 41-60, Suppl. De.
    9. Xavier De Luna, 1998. "Projected polynomial autoregression for prediction of stationary time series," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 763-775.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bask, Mikael & Liu, Tung & Widerberg, Anna, 2007. "The stability of electricity prices: Estimation and inference of the Lyapunov exponents," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 376(C), pages 565-572.
    2. Bask Mikael & de Luna Xavier, 2002. "Characterizing the Degree of Stability of Non-linear Dynamic Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, April.
    3. Bask, Mikael, 2010. "Measuring potential market risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 180-186, September.
    4. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2011. "What causes exchange rate volatility? Evidence from selected EMU members and candidates for EMU membership countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 39-61, February.
    5. Bask, Mikael & de Luna, Xavier, 2005. "EMU and the stability and volatility of foreign exchange: Some empirical evidence," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 737-750.
    6. Mikael Bask & Anna Widerberg, 2012. "Actual and potential market risks during the stock market turmoil 2007--2008," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 339-349, March.
    7. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Bask, Mikael & Liu, Tung & Widerberg, Anna, 2007. "The stability of electricity prices: Estimation and inference of the Lyapunov exponents," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 376(C), pages 565-572.
    9. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2006_009 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Bask, Mikael, 2010. "Measuring potential market risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 180-186, September.
    11. Sekandary, Ghezal & Bask, Mikael, 2023. "Monetary policy uncertainty, monetary policy surprises and stock returns," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EMU; Foreign Exchange; Smooth Lyapunov Exponents; Stability; Volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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