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Nonlinear causality testing with stepwise multivariate filtering: Evidence from stock and currency markets

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  • Bekiros, Stelios

Abstract

We examine the spillovers of the US subprime crisis to Asian and European economies and in particular to what extent currency and stock markets have been affected by the crisis. Linear and nonlinear dependencies are detected after pairwise and system-wise causality analysis. A new stepwise multivariate filtering approach is implemented after controlling for conditional heteroskedasticity in the raw data and in VAR/VECM residuals using multivariate GARCH models. Significant nonlinear causal linkages persisted even after the application of GARCH-BEKK, CCC-GARCH and DCC-GARCH modelling. This indicates that volatility effects might partly induce nonlinear causality. Perhaps new short-term asset-pricing models could be developed to explain this stylized fact. These results might also have important implications for hedging, trading strategies and financial market regulation.

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  • Bekiros, Stelios, 2014. "Nonlinear causality testing with stepwise multivariate filtering: Evidence from stock and currency markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 336-348.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:29:y:2014:i:c:p:336-348
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2014.06.005
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonlinear filtering; Multivariate GARCH; Spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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