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Foreign Exchange Market Volatility in Eu Accession Countries in the Run-Up to Euro Adoption: Weathering Uncharted Waters

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  • Mr. Istvan P Szekely
  • Ádám Kóbor

Abstract

The paper analyzes foreign exchange market volatility in four Central European EU accession countries in 2001-2003. By using a Markov regime-switching model, it identifies two regimes representing high- and low-volatility periods. The estimation results show not only that volatilities are different between the two regimes but also that some of the cross-correlations differ. Notably, cross-correlations increase substantially for two pairs of currencies (the Hungarian forint-Polish zloty and the Czech koruna-Slovak koruna) in the high-volatility period. The paper concludes by discussing the policy implications of these findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Istvan P Szekely & Ádám Kóbor, 2004. "Foreign Exchange Market Volatility in Eu Accession Countries in the Run-Up to Euro Adoption: Weathering Uncharted Waters," IMF Working Papers 2004/016, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2004/016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dueker, Michael & Neely, Christopher J., 2007. "Can Markov switching models predict excess foreign exchange returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 279-296, February.
    2. Mary Hardy, 2001. "A Regime-Switching Model of Long-Term Stock Returns," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 41-53.
    3. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
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    5. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Agnes Csermely, 2004. "Convergence Expectations and Convergence Strategies. Lessons from the Hungarian Experiences in the pre-EU period1," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(1), pages 104-126, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Windberger & Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Janette Walde, 2012. "Dirty floating and monetary independence in Central and Eastern Europe - The role of structural breaks," Working Papers 2012-21, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    2. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2011. "What causes exchange rate volatility? Evidence from selected EMU members and candidates for EMU membership countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 39-61, February.
    3. Aleš Bulíø, 2005. "Liberalized Markets Have More Stable Exchange Rates: Short-Run Evidence from Four Transition Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(5-6), pages 206-231, May.
    4. Morar Triandafil, Cristina & Brezeanu, Petre & Huidumac, Catalin & Morar Triandafil, Adrian, 2011. "The Drivers of the CEE Exchange Rate Volatility - Empirical Perspective in the context of the Recent Financial Crisis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 212-229, March.
    5. Andrea M Maechler & Srobona Mitra & Delisle Worrell, 2010. "Decomposing Financial Risks and Vulnerabilities in Emerging Europe," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(1), pages 25-60, April.
    6. Bednarik, Radek, 2008. "Analýza volatility devizových kurzů vybraných ekonomik [The Analysis of Volatility of Selected Countries' Exchange Rates]," MPRA Paper 15046, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Michael Frömmel, 2010. "Volatility Regimes in Central and Eastern European Countries’ Exchange Rates," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(1), pages 2-21, February.
    8. Mr. Marcus Pramor & Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2006. "Common Volatility Trends in the Central and Eastern European Currencies and the Euro," IMF Working Papers 2006/206, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Juraj Stanèík, 2007. "Determinants of Exchange-Rate Volatility: The Case of the New EU Members," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(9-10), pages 414-432, October.
    10. Carmen TODERASCU (SANDU), 2014. "The Influence Of Economic Conditions In Romania On The Relation Between Inflation And The Ron Exchange Rate," Journal of Public Administration, Finance and Law, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 5(5), pages 221-228, June.
    11. Mr. Rupert D Worrell & Andrea M. Maechler & Ms. Srobona Mitra, 2007. "Decomposing Financial Risks and Vulnerabilities in Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 2007/248, International Monetary Fund.

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