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Exchange rate regimes, foreign exchange volatility and export performance in Central and Eastern Europe: just another blur project?

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  • Égert, Balázs
  • Morales-Zumaquero, Amalia

Abstract

This paper attempts to analyze the direct impact of exchange rate volatility on the export performance of ten Central and Eastern European transition economies as well as its indirect impact via changes in exchange rate regimes.Not only aggregate but also bilateral and sectoral export flows are studied.To this end, we first analyze shifts in exchange rate volatility linked to changes in the exchange rate regimes and second, use these changes to construct dummy variables we include in our export function.The results suggest that the size and the direction of the impact of forex volatility and of regime changes on exports vary considerably across sectors and countries and that they may be related to specific periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Égert, Balázs & Morales-Zumaquero, Amalia, 2005. "Exchange rate regimes, foreign exchange volatility and export performance in Central and Eastern Europe: just another blur project?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2005, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2005_008
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    3. Manuel CANTAVELLA-JORDA & Sheila Amin GUTIERREZ DE PIÑERES, 2012. "A Cross-national Panel Study of Devaluations on Disaggregated Export Sectors: A Case for Sector Specific Policies," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(2).
    4. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2013. "The controversial link between exchange rate volatility and exports: Evidence from Tunisian case," MPRA Paper 49133, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2013.
    5. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2011. "What causes exchange rate volatility? Evidence from selected EMU members and candidates for EMU membership countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 39-61, February.
    6. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "The nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate: Better paths via unconditional vs conditional analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 54-66.
    7. Bouoiyour, jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2014. "Exchange Rate Impact on Russia’s Exports: Some Evidence from an Evolutionary Co-spectral Analysis," MPRA Paper 59368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Pelinescu, Elena, 2012. "Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Romania. Insights into the Economic Crisis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-21, September.
    9. Gabriel Pino & Dilara Tas & Subhash C. Sharma, 2016. "An investigation of the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports in East Asia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(26), pages 2397-2411, June.
    10. Grossmann, Axel & Love, Inessa & Orlov, Alexei G., 2014. "The dynamics of exchange rate volatility: A panel VAR approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-27.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate volatility; export; trade; transition; structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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