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Sequential Monte Carlo With Model Tempering

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  • Mlikota, Marko
  • Schorfheide, Frank

Abstract

Modern macroeconometrics often relies on time series models for which it is time-consuming to evaluate the likelihood function. We demonstrate how Bayesian computations for such models can be drastically accelerated by reweighting and mutating posterior draws from an approximating model that allows for fast likelihood evaluations, into posterior draws from the model of interest, using a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm. We apply the technique to the estimation of a vector autoregression with stochastic volatility and a nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The runtime reductions we obtain range from 27% to 88%.

Suggested Citation

  • Mlikota, Marko & Schorfheide, Frank, 2022. "Sequential Monte Carlo With Model Tempering," CEPR Discussion Papers 17035, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17035
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Geweke, "undated". "Posterior Simulators in Econometrics," Computing in Economics and Finance 1996 _019, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Solving dynamic general equilibrium models using a second-order approximation to the policy function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 755-775, January.
    3. Garland Durham & John Geweke, 2014. "Adaptive Sequential Posterior Simulators for Massively Parallel Computing Environments," Advances in Econometrics, in: Bayesian Model Comparison, volume 34, pages 1-44, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    4. Ajay Jasra & David A. Stephens & Arnaud Doucet & Theodoros Tsagaris, 2011. "Inference for Lévy‐Driven Stochastic Volatility Models via Adaptive Sequential Monte Carlo," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-22, March.
    5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7305 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. N. Chopin & P. E. Jacob & O. Papaspiliopoulos, 2013. "SMC-super-2: an efficient algorithm for sequential analysis of state space models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 75(3), pages 397-426, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marko Mlikota, 2022. "Cross-Sectional Dynamics Under Network Structure: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications," Papers 2211.13610, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian computations; Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models; Sequential monte carlo; stochastic volatility; Vector autoregressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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