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Analysis of the labour market and its impact on inflation in Serbia

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  • Jelena Momcilovic and Mirjana Miletic
  • Jelena Momcilovic

    (National Bank of Serbia)

  • Mirjana Miletic

    (National Bank of Serbia)

Abstract

In this paper we showed how labour market factors are included in the macroeconomic model which the National Bank of Serbia uses for the medium-term inflation projection, thus enabling an insight into labour market trends, as well as an analysis of the link with other macroeconomic indicators, notably their effect on inflation. The estimates obtained by applying the Kalman filter indicate that NAIRU is still below the unemployment rate, suggesting a positive unemployment gap and showing that the labour market in Serbia is not exerting any major pressures on inflation. The paper also presents the results of testing the relevance of the hysteresis effect in the unemployment rate for Serbia. The hysteresis effect was confirmed by applying the unit root test and estimating the statistical significance of the stochastic trend in the NAIRU series.

Suggested Citation

  • Jelena Momcilovic and Mirjana Miletic & Jelena Momcilovic & Mirjana Miletic, 2024. "Analysis of the labour market and its impact on inflation in Serbia," Working Papers Bulletin 25, National Bank of Serbia.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsb:bilten:25
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    labour market; inflation; NAIRU; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

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